Japan’s core-core CPI, excluding fresh food and energy, has held steady near 1.9% year-over-year through August 2026, reflecting subdued but persistent underlying price pressures amid ongoing wage growth and cost pass-through. The Bank of Japan’s July and September 2026 communications, coupled with its rate hike to 1.25%, highlight expectations that underlying inflation will accelerate above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026 due to yen depreciation, higher imported costs, AI-driven semiconductor demand, and broadening price adjustments. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 2.0-2.4% range for 2026 as traders price in this gradual firming while discounting sharper upside from energy volatility or rapid expectation shifts. Recent data releases showing modest deceleration in headline measures have reinforced the view that the outcome will remain anchored near the BoJ’s target without breaching higher bands.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui2.0-2.4% 78%
≤1.9% 23%
2.5-2.9% <1%
4.0%+ <1%
$61,116 Vol.
$61,116 Vol.
Feb 12, 2027
≤1.9%
23%
2.0-2.4%
78%
2.5-2.9%
1%
3.0-3.4%
<1%
3.5-3.9%
<1%
4.0%+
1%
2.0-2.4% 78%
≤1.9% 23%
2.5-2.9% <1%
4.0%+ <1%
$61,116 Vol.
$61,116 Vol.
Feb 12, 2027
≤1.9%
$17,276 Vol.
23%
2.0-2.4%
$26,450 Vol.
78%
2.5-2.9%
$11,369 Vol.
1%
3.0-3.4%
$2,464 Vol.
<1%
3.5-3.9%
$1,485 Vol.
<1%
4.0%+
$2,072 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Japan’s core-core CPI, excluding fresh food and energy, has held steady near 1.9% year-over-year through August 2026, reflecting subdued but persistent underlying price pressures amid ongoing wage growth and cost pass-through. The Bank of Japan’s July and September 2026 communications, coupled with its rate hike to 1.25%, highlight expectations that underlying inflation will accelerate above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026 due to yen depreciation, higher imported costs, AI-driven semiconductor demand, and broadening price adjustments. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 2.0-2.4% range for 2026 as traders price in this gradual firming while discounting sharper upside from energy volatility or rapid expectation shifts. Recent data releases showing modest deceleration in headline measures have reinforced the view that the outcome will remain anchored near the BoJ’s target without breaching higher bands.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
Volume
$61,116Tanggal Berakhir
Feb 12, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Japan’s core-core CPI, excluding fresh food and energy, has held steady near 1.9% year-over-year through August 2026, reflecting subdued but persistent underlying price pressures amid ongoing wage growth and cost pass-through. The Bank of Japan’s July and September 2026 communications, coupled with its rate hike to 1.25%, highlight expectations that underlying inflation will accelerate above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026 due to yen depreciation, higher imported costs, AI-driven semiconductor demand, and broadening price adjustments. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 2.0-2.4% range for 2026 as traders price in this gradual firming while discounting sharper upside from energy volatility or rapid expectation shifts. Recent data releases showing modest deceleration in headline measures have reinforced the view that the outcome will remain anchored near the BoJ’s target without breaching higher bands.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$61,116Tanggal Berakhir
Feb 12, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan’s core-core CPI, excluding fresh food and energy, has held steady near 1.9% year-over-year through August 2026, reflecting subdued but persistent underlying price pressures amid ongoing wage growth and cost pass-through. The Bank of Japan’s July and September 2026 communications, coupled with its rate hike to 1.25%, highlight expectations that underlying inflation will accelerate above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026 due to yen depreciation, higher imported costs, AI-driven semiconductor demand, and broadening price adjustments. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 2.0-2.4% range for 2026 as traders price in this gradual firming while discounting sharper upside from energy volatility or rapid expectation shifts. Recent data releases showing modest deceleration in headline measures have reinforced the view that the outcome will remain anchored near the BoJ’s target without breaching higher bands.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan