Celina Leão (PP), the current governor of Brazil’s Federal District who assumed office in March 2026 following Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, maintains a commanding lead in the 2026 gubernatorial race. Recent Datafolha and Igape surveys from early-to-mid September place her at approximately 40-41% in first-round voting intentions, well ahead of José Roberto Arruda (PSD) at 15-17% and Leandro Grass (PT) at 14-16%, with smaller shares for Paula Belmonte, Ricardo Cappelli, and others. Her position reflects strong name recognition as incumbent, coalition backing from PP and allied parties, and improving approval metrics in recent polling. Ongoing televised interviews and campaign events in mid-September have reinforced her frontrunner status ahead of the October 4 first round. Traders price her victory probability at 82.5%, consistent with consistent polling margins and structural advantages for the sitting executive in this open-seat contest.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiCelina Leão 83%
Arruda 8.3%
Leandro Grass 3.0%
Elisson <1%
$16,907 Vol.
$16,907 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Celina Leão
83%
Arruda
11%
Leandro Grass
3%
Elisson
1%
Paula Belmonte
<1%
Professor Robson
<1%
Expedito Mendonça
<1%
Kiko Caputo
<1%
Cappelli
<1%
Professora Samara Mineiro
<1%
Celina Leão 83%
Arruda 8.3%
Leandro Grass 3.0%
Elisson <1%
$16,907 Vol.
$16,907 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Celina Leão
$9,715 Vol.
83%
Arruda
$1,928 Vol.
11%
Leandro Grass
$1,609 Vol.
3%
Elisson
$543 Vol.
1%
Paula Belmonte
$531 Vol.
<1%
Professor Robson
$530 Vol.
<1%
Expedito Mendonça
$541 Vol.
<1%
Kiko Caputo
$490 Vol.
<1%
Cappelli
$531 Vol.
<1%
Professora Samara Mineiro
$490 Vol.
<1%
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Celina Leão (PP), the current governor of Brazil’s Federal District who assumed office in March 2026 following Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, maintains a commanding lead in the 2026 gubernatorial race. Recent Datafolha and Igape surveys from early-to-mid September place her at approximately 40-41% in first-round voting intentions, well ahead of José Roberto Arruda (PSD) at 15-17% and Leandro Grass (PT) at 14-16%, with smaller shares for Paula Belmonte, Ricardo Cappelli, and others. Her position reflects strong name recognition as incumbent, coalition backing from PP and allied parties, and improving approval metrics in recent polling. Ongoing televised interviews and campaign events in mid-September have reinforced her frontrunner status ahead of the October 4 first round. Traders price her victory probability at 82.5%, consistent with consistent polling margins and structural advantages for the sitting executive in this open-seat contest.
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ET
Volume
$16,907Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Celina Leão (PP), the current governor of Brazil’s Federal District who assumed office in March 2026 following Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, maintains a commanding lead in the 2026 gubernatorial race. Recent Datafolha and Igape surveys from early-to-mid September place her at approximately 40-41% in first-round voting intentions, well ahead of José Roberto Arruda (PSD) at 15-17% and Leandro Grass (PT) at 14-16%, with smaller shares for Paula Belmonte, Ricardo Cappelli, and others. Her position reflects strong name recognition as incumbent, coalition backing from PP and allied parties, and improving approval metrics in recent polling. Ongoing televised interviews and campaign events in mid-September have reinforced her frontrunner status ahead of the October 4 first round. Traders price her victory probability at 82.5%, consistent with consistent polling margins and structural advantages for the sitting executive in this open-seat contest.
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$16,907Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Celina Leão (PP), the current governor of Brazil’s Federal District who assumed office in March 2026 following Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, maintains a commanding lead in the 2026 gubernatorial race. Recent Datafolha and Igape surveys from early-to-mid September place her at approximately 40-41% in first-round voting intentions, well ahead of José Roberto Arruda (PSD) at 15-17% and Leandro Grass (PT) at 14-16%, with smaller shares for Paula Belmonte, Ricardo Cappelli, and others. Her position reflects strong name recognition as incumbent, coalition backing from PP and allied parties, and improving approval metrics in recent polling. Ongoing televised interviews and campaign events in mid-September have reinforced her frontrunner status ahead of the October 4 first round. Traders price her victory probability at 82.5%, consistent with consistent polling margins and structural advantages for the sitting executive in this open-seat contest.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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