Recent strength in U.S. labor market data, including the August nonfarm payrolls report showing 162,000 job gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, has lifted market-implied odds of a September hike to around 50-58% while shifting economist forecasts toward at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. Persistent inflation pressures from supply bottlenecks, tariffs, and energy costs have reinforced a more hawkish stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, who eliminated forward guidance after the June dot plot revealed nine officials now projecting higher rates by end-2026. With the federal funds target at 3.50-3.75%, the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and its updated Summary of Economic Projections represent the primary near-term catalyst that could clarify whether the path tilts toward sustained holds or sequenced hikes through December.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiPause–Pause–Pause 29%
Hike–Pause–Pause 15%
Pause–Hike–Hike 12.7%
Hike–Hike–Pause 13%
$14,999 Vol.
$14,999 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
11%
Hike–Pause–Pause
15%
Hike–Hike–Hike
6%
Hike–Hike–Pause
13%
Pause–Pause–Hike
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause
29%
Pause–Hike–Hike
13%
Pause–Hike–Pause
8%
Other
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause 29%
Hike–Pause–Pause 15%
Pause–Hike–Hike 12.7%
Hike–Hike–Pause 13%
$14,999 Vol.
$14,999 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$329 Vol.
11%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$569 Vol.
15%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$231 Vol.
6%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$474 Vol.
13%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$618 Vol.
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$11,754 Vol.
29%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$364 Vol.
13%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$366 Vol.
8%
Other
$294 Vol.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent strength in U.S. labor market data, including the August nonfarm payrolls report showing 162,000 job gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, has lifted market-implied odds of a September hike to around 50-58% while shifting economist forecasts toward at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. Persistent inflation pressures from supply bottlenecks, tariffs, and energy costs have reinforced a more hawkish stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, who eliminated forward guidance after the June dot plot revealed nine officials now projecting higher rates by end-2026. With the federal funds target at 3.50-3.75%, the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and its updated Summary of Economic Projections represent the primary near-term catalyst that could clarify whether the path tilts toward sustained holds or sequenced hikes through December.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volume
$14,999Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent strength in U.S. labor market data, including the August nonfarm payrolls report showing 162,000 job gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, has lifted market-implied odds of a September hike to around 50-58% while shifting economist forecasts toward at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. Persistent inflation pressures from supply bottlenecks, tariffs, and energy costs have reinforced a more hawkish stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, who eliminated forward guidance after the June dot plot revealed nine officials now projecting higher rates by end-2026. With the federal funds target at 3.50-3.75%, the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and its updated Summary of Economic Projections represent the primary near-term catalyst that could clarify whether the path tilts toward sustained holds or sequenced hikes through December.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$14,999Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent strength in U.S. labor market data, including the August nonfarm payrolls report showing 162,000 job gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, has lifted market-implied odds of a September hike to around 50-58% while shifting economist forecasts toward at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. Persistent inflation pressures from supply bottlenecks, tariffs, and energy costs have reinforced a more hawkish stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, who eliminated forward guidance after the June dot plot revealed nine officials now projecting higher rates by end-2026. With the federal funds target at 3.50-3.75%, the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and its updated Summary of Economic Projections represent the primary near-term catalyst that could clarify whether the path tilts toward sustained holds or sequenced hikes through December.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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