The Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations—citing insufficient evidence and a judicial ruling quashing subpoenas—underpins the 95.7% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. Trader consensus reflects Powell’s completed term as chair in May 2026, the absence of any subsequent charges or active investigations, and the political nature of the earlier inquiry that failed to produce prosecutable facts. While tail risks remain remote, renewed politically motivated scrutiny or unrelated personal legal matters could theoretically alter the outlook before year-end 2026.