Recent September FOMC action, lifting the federal funds target to 3.75-4.00 percent amid resilient labor data and core PCE near 3.4 percent, anchors trader expectations for the October-January sequence. The updated dot plot median of 4.1 percent by year-end and hawkish official commentary, including from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, point to one additional 25-basis-point move before year-end while inflation risks remain skewed higher due to demand pressures and energy prices. This backdrop supports the 51 percent market-implied odds on a pause-hike-pause path as the consensus view, with futures pricing an 88 percent chance of at least one 2026 hike overall. Key near-term catalysts include the October 27-28 decision and upcoming CPI releases that could alter the balance between October and December timing.