Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pará polling for the October 2026 first round, with recent surveys showing him at 37-41% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 29-31% and single-digit or lower support for candidates such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema. Traders reflect this regional edge through elevated implied probability for the incumbent, driven by sustained preferences in northern states tied to social program delivery, economic conditions, and voting patterns from prior cycles. National tightening between Lula and Flávio has not altered Pará-specific gaps, where rejection rates for the main challenger remain elevated. Late campaign developments, including debate performances, turnout shifts among key demographics, or unexpected alliances, could narrow margins before election day, though current data indicate limited immediate pressure on the frontrunner's position.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLula 94%
Flavio Bolsonaro 4.7%
Ronaldo Caiado 2.3%
Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
$17,480 Vol.
$17,480 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
94%
Flavio Bolsonaro
5%
Ronaldo Caiado
2%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Samara
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 94%
Flavio Bolsonaro 4.7%
Ronaldo Caiado 2.3%
Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
$17,480 Vol.
$17,480 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$8,201 Vol.
94%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$1,214 Vol.
5%
Ronaldo Caiado
$574 Vol.
2%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$555 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$857 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$1,289 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$663 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$658 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$685 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$698 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$490 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$608 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$989 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pará polling for the October 2026 first round, with recent surveys showing him at 37-41% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 29-31% and single-digit or lower support for candidates such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema. Traders reflect this regional edge through elevated implied probability for the incumbent, driven by sustained preferences in northern states tied to social program delivery, economic conditions, and voting patterns from prior cycles. National tightening between Lula and Flávio has not altered Pará-specific gaps, where rejection rates for the main challenger remain elevated. Late campaign developments, including debate performances, turnout shifts among key demographics, or unexpected alliances, could narrow margins before election day, though current data indicate limited immediate pressure on the frontrunner's position.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Volume
$17,480Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pará polling for the October 2026 first round, with recent surveys showing him at 37-41% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 29-31% and single-digit or lower support for candidates such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema. Traders reflect this regional edge through elevated implied probability for the incumbent, driven by sustained preferences in northern states tied to social program delivery, economic conditions, and voting patterns from prior cycles. National tightening between Lula and Flávio has not altered Pará-specific gaps, where rejection rates for the main challenger remain elevated. Late campaign developments, including debate performances, turnout shifts among key demographics, or unexpected alliances, could narrow margins before election day, though current data indicate limited immediate pressure on the frontrunner's position.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$17,480Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pará polling for the October 2026 first round, with recent surveys showing him at 37-41% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 29-31% and single-digit or lower support for candidates such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema. Traders reflect this regional edge through elevated implied probability for the incumbent, driven by sustained preferences in northern states tied to social program delivery, economic conditions, and voting patterns from prior cycles. National tightening between Lula and Flávio has not altered Pará-specific gaps, where rejection rates for the main challenger remain elevated. Late campaign developments, including debate performances, turnout shifts among key demographics, or unexpected alliances, could narrow margins before election day, though current data indicate limited immediate pressure on the frontrunner's position.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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