The September 16 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%—the first hike since 2023—shifted trader expectations toward further tightening amid core PCE inflation near 3.4% and August CPI showing 3.4% year-over-year gains. With the next meetings set for October 27-28, December 8-9, and January 2027, the leading Pause-Hike-Pause sequence at 47.5% implied probability reflects consensus that the Fed will hold in October to gauge labor-market cooling (unemployment near 4.1-4.2%) and incoming data before delivering one additional hike late this year, then pausing. Recent communications from officials including Williams underscore one more adjustment by year-end, while futures markets price roughly an 88% chance of at least one hike in 2026; upcoming September CPI and employment releases, plus October FOMC minutes, remain key swing factors.