Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Santa Catarina first-round voting intentions according to recent state-level polling, reflecting the region's longstanding conservative preferences and alignment with the Liberal Party. The state’s electorate has shown consistent support for bolsonarista candidates, reinforced by the popularity of PL Governor Jorginho Mello, who leads his own reelection bid by wide margins. National campaign dynamics, including Flávio’s formal nomination and endorsements, have translated into double-digit advantages locally, with Lula trailing significantly and other contenders such as Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos registering only low single-digit shares. Trader consensus in the market prices this dominance at 97 percent for Flávio. Late developments such as turnout shifts among undecided voters, vote splitting among right-wing options, or major campaign events before the October 4 first round could still alter the outcome.