Russia’s Supreme Court ruling on August 10 removed Yabloko from the September 20 State Duma ballot after a Rodina party suit cited alleged copyright issues and foreign financing concerns, ending the liberal party’s registration despite earlier Central Election Commission approval. This procedural barrier, combined with Yabloko’s consistent sub-5% national performance in every proportional vote since 1999 and limited media access under current electoral rules, underpins the near-certain trader view that the party list cannot meet the threshold. Independent surveys had shown modest urban gains before disqualification, yet state-aligned polls and historical patterns reinforced low viability. An appeal succeeding before voting or an unforeseen reversal of the exclusion remain the only narrow pathways that could alter the outcome before results finalize.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
<1% संभावना
$615,539 वॉल्यूम
$615,539 वॉल्यूम
20 सित, 2026
हाँ
<1% संभावना
$615,539 वॉल्यूम
$615,539 वॉल्यूम
20 सित, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Russia’s Supreme Court ruling on August 10 removed Yabloko from the September 20 State Duma ballot after a Rodina party suit cited alleged copyright issues and foreign financing concerns, ending the liberal party’s registration despite earlier Central Election Commission approval. This procedural barrier, combined with Yabloko’s consistent sub-5% national performance in every proportional vote since 1999 and limited media access under current electoral rules, underpins the near-certain trader view that the party list cannot meet the threshold. Independent surveys had shown modest urban gains before disqualification, yet state-aligned polls and historical patterns reinforced low viability. An appeal succeeding before voting or an unforeseen reversal of the exclusion remain the only narrow pathways that could alter the outcome before results finalize.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$615,539समाप्ति तिथि
20 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Russia’s Supreme Court ruling on August 10 removed Yabloko from the September 20 State Duma ballot after a Rodina party suit cited alleged copyright issues and foreign financing concerns, ending the liberal party’s registration despite earlier Central Election Commission approval. This procedural barrier, combined with Yabloko’s consistent sub-5% national performance in every proportional vote since 1999 and limited media access under current electoral rules, underpins the near-certain trader view that the party list cannot meet the threshold. Independent surveys had shown modest urban gains before disqualification, yet state-aligned polls and historical patterns reinforced low viability. An appeal succeeding before voting or an unforeseen reversal of the exclusion remain the only narrow pathways that could alter the outcome before results finalize.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
वॉल्यूम
$615,539समाप्ति तिथि
20 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Russia’s Supreme Court ruling on August 10 removed Yabloko from the September 20 State Duma ballot after a Rodina party suit cited alleged copyright issues and foreign financing concerns, ending the liberal party’s registration despite earlier Central Election Commission approval. This procedural barrier, combined with Yabloko’s consistent sub-5% national performance in every proportional vote since 1999 and limited media access under current electoral rules, underpins the near-certain trader view that the party list cannot meet the threshold. Independent surveys had shown modest urban gains before disqualification, yet state-aligned polls and historical patterns reinforced low viability. An appeal succeeding before voting or an unforeseen reversal of the exclusion remain the only narrow pathways that could alter the outcome before results finalize.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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