**Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched by retired Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter on August 25, 2026, is polling near Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 2026 Knesset election.** Recent surveys from mid-to-late September place the party at roughly four seats (around 3.3%), with earlier post-launch polls ranging from below the threshold to as high as eight seats. Its independent run—after rejecting merger overtures from Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party—has drawn support primarily from Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionist voters, raising concerns about right-wing vote splitting. Winter’s slate, featuring figures like Yoseph Haddad and others, emphasizes hardline security positions and has shown mixed results across pollsters, reflecting the volatility typical of a newly formed party with limited name recognition. The current trader consensus around 3.25–4% vote share aligns with the latest polling averages that show the party clearing the threshold by a narrow margin but facing risks from undecided voters, potential last-minute consolidation on the right, and competition in a crowded field. Surplus-vote agreements and final campaign dynamics before the October vote could still shift these probabilities.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2.5% से कम 28%
3.25-4% 28%
4-5% 24%
2.5-3.25% 23%
नया
नया
30 नव, 2026
2.5% से कम
16%
2.5-3.25%
23%
3.25-4%
28%
4-5%
24%
5%+
14%
2.5% से कम 28%
3.25-4% 28%
4-5% 24%
2.5-3.25% 23%
नया
नया
30 नव, 2026
2.5% से कम
$231 वॉल्यूम
16%
2.5-3.25%
$52 वॉल्यूम
23%
3.25-4%
$76 वॉल्यूम
28%
4-5%
$23 वॉल्यूम
24%
5%+
$101 वॉल्यूम
14%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).**Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched by retired Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter on August 25, 2026, is polling near Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 2026 Knesset election.**
Recent surveys from mid-to-late September place the party at roughly four seats (around 3.3%), with earlier post-launch polls ranging from below the threshold to as high as eight seats. Its independent run—after rejecting merger overtures from Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party—has drawn support primarily from Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionist voters, raising concerns about right-wing vote splitting. Winter’s slate, featuring figures like Yoseph Haddad and others, emphasizes hardline security positions and has shown mixed results across pollsters, reflecting the volatility typical of a newly formed party with limited name recognition.
The current trader consensus around 3.25–4% vote share aligns with the latest polling averages that show the party clearing the threshold by a narrow margin but facing risks from undecided voters, potential last-minute consolidation on the right, and competition in a crowded field. Surplus-vote agreements and final campaign dynamics before the October vote could still shift these probabilities.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$483समाप्ति तिथि
30 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/रिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).**Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched by retired Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter on August 25, 2026, is polling near Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 2026 Knesset election.**
Recent surveys from mid-to-late September place the party at roughly four seats (around 3.3%), with earlier post-launch polls ranging from below the threshold to as high as eight seats. Its independent run—after rejecting merger overtures from Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party—has drawn support primarily from Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionist voters, raising concerns about right-wing vote splitting. Winter’s slate, featuring figures like Yoseph Haddad and others, emphasizes hardline security positions and has shown mixed results across pollsters, reflecting the volatility typical of a newly formed party with limited name recognition.
The current trader consensus around 3.25–4% vote share aligns with the latest polling averages that show the party clearing the threshold by a narrow margin but facing risks from undecided voters, potential last-minute consolidation on the right, and competition in a crowded field. Surplus-vote agreements and final campaign dynamics before the October vote could still shift these probabilities.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
वॉल्यूम
$483समाप्ति तिथि
30 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/रिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...**Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched by retired Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter on August 25, 2026, is polling near Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 2026 Knesset election.** Recent surveys from mid-to-late September place the party at roughly four seats (around 3.3%), with earlier post-launch polls ranging from below the threshold to as high as eight seats. Its independent run—after rejecting merger overtures from Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party—has drawn support primarily from Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionist voters, raising concerns about right-wing vote splitting. Winter’s slate, featuring figures like Yoseph Haddad and others, emphasizes hardline security positions and has shown mixed results across pollsters, reflecting the volatility typical of a newly formed party with limited name recognition. The current trader consensus around 3.25–4% vote share aligns with the latest polling averages that show the party clearing the threshold by a narrow margin but facing risks from undecided voters, potential last-minute consolidation on the right, and competition in a crowded field. Surplus-vote agreements and final campaign dynamics before the October vote could still shift these probabilities.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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