**Elevated partisan mobilization and structural factors have kept expected House turnout clustered tightly around 115-130 million votes.** Strong Democratic enthusiasm in opposition to the Trump administration, evidenced by consistent special-election and primary overperformance plus a sustained generic ballot advantage, supports the upper end of that range, while Republican concerns over base demotivation among lower-propensity voters exert downward pressure. Expanded mail and early voting options since 2020 provide a higher participation floor than pre-2020 midterms, and modestly increased youth registration adds marginal upside. Historical benchmarks—107.7 million votes in 2022 and higher 2018 totals—anchor trader assessments, with the narrow Republican House majority and nationalized contest sustaining engagement without pushing probabilities decisively toward record levels. Late-campaign developments in competitive districts, economic sentiment shifts, or differential get-out-the-vote success could still widen the distribution before November 3.