Recent infrastructure incidents on September 2 and 3, including elevated errors affecting Claude Sonnet 5, Mythos 5.1, Fable 5.1, and Opus 5 models across claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and Cowork, have shaped trader views toward several downtime days. Anthropic's pattern of partial outages—driven by rapid scaling of large language models amid surging demand—has produced roughly 99.4% uptime over recent quarters, with multiple short-to-medium incidents per month. Closely matched odds between 5-7 and 8-10 days reflect uncertainty over whether September's early wobbles will recur at a similar pace, versus stabilization as the company addresses routing and capacity constraints. Key swing factors include new model rollouts and any broader AI platform strain.