Trader consensus on a low likelihood of Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 stems from assessments that the People's Liberation Army lacks adequate amphibious lift, joint command readiness after senior officer purges, and full mobilization capacity for a complex cross-strait campaign in the short window remaining. Beijing has instead intensified gray-zone pressure through record coast guard and naval deployments around the island, joint blockade exercises, and diplomatic leverage ahead of a planned Xi-Trump summit. Taiwan continues bolstering asymmetric defenses, including supplementary budgets for missiles and drones plus combat drills. While these trends support high implied probability against invasion, scenarios such as rapid escalation from maritime incidents, miscalculation during exercises, or abrupt shifts in U.S.-China talks could still alter the trajectory before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa Chine envahira-t-elle Taïwan d'ici la fin de 2026 ?
La Chine envahira-t-elle Taïwan d'ici la fin de 2026 ?
Oui
5% chance
$41,372,779 Vol.
$41,372,779 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Gagnez 3.25%
Oui
5% chance
$41,372,779 Vol.
$41,372,779 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Gagnez 3.25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on a low likelihood of Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 stems from assessments that the People's Liberation Army lacks adequate amphibious lift, joint command readiness after senior officer purges, and full mobilization capacity for a complex cross-strait campaign in the short window remaining. Beijing has instead intensified gray-zone pressure through record coast guard and naval deployments around the island, joint blockade exercises, and diplomatic leverage ahead of a planned Xi-Trump summit. Taiwan continues bolstering asymmetric defenses, including supplementary budgets for missiles and drones plus combat drills. While these trends support high implied probability against invasion, scenarios such as rapid escalation from maritime incidents, miscalculation during exercises, or abrupt shifts in U.S.-China talks could still alter the trajectory before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Volume
$41,372,779Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETRésolveur
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on a low likelihood of Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 stems from assessments that the People's Liberation Army lacks adequate amphibious lift, joint command readiness after senior officer purges, and full mobilization capacity for a complex cross-strait campaign in the short window remaining. Beijing has instead intensified gray-zone pressure through record coast guard and naval deployments around the island, joint blockade exercises, and diplomatic leverage ahead of a planned Xi-Trump summit. Taiwan continues bolstering asymmetric defenses, including supplementary budgets for missiles and drones plus combat drills. While these trends support high implied probability against invasion, scenarios such as rapid escalation from maritime incidents, miscalculation during exercises, or abrupt shifts in U.S.-China talks could still alter the trajectory before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$41,372,779Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETRésolveur
0x157Ce2d67...Trader consensus on a low likelihood of Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 stems from assessments that the People's Liberation Army lacks adequate amphibious lift, joint command readiness after senior officer purges, and full mobilization capacity for a complex cross-strait campaign in the short window remaining. Beijing has instead intensified gray-zone pressure through record coast guard and naval deployments around the island, joint blockade exercises, and diplomatic leverage ahead of a planned Xi-Trump summit. Taiwan continues bolstering asymmetric defenses, including supplementary budgets for missiles and drones plus combat drills. While these trends support high implied probability against invasion, scenarios such as rapid escalation from maritime incidents, miscalculation during exercises, or abrupt shifts in U.S.-China talks could still alter the trajectory before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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