Apple's established pattern of annual flagship smartphone launches each September underpins the 99.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Traders cite the company's reliable development cadence, mature supply chain for advanced chips and displays, and consistent track record since the original iPhone as key drivers of this consensus. No major deviations have surfaced in recent cycles or official statements. Still, low-probability risks such as severe component shortages, unexpected hardware delays, or regulatory blocks in major markets could shift timelines, though historical precedent shows these rarely derail the overall schedule.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
>99% chance
$235,390 Vol.
$235,390 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
>99% chance
$235,390 Vol.
$235,390 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established pattern of annual flagship smartphone launches each September underpins the 99.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Traders cite the company's reliable development cadence, mature supply chain for advanced chips and displays, and consistent track record since the original iPhone as key drivers of this consensus. No major deviations have surfaced in recent cycles or official statements. Still, low-probability risks such as severe component shortages, unexpected hardware delays, or regulatory blocks in major markets could shift timelines, though historical precedent shows these rarely derail the overall schedule.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$235,390Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established pattern of annual flagship smartphone launches each September underpins the 99.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Traders cite the company's reliable development cadence, mature supply chain for advanced chips and displays, and consistent track record since the original iPhone as key drivers of this consensus. No major deviations have surfaced in recent cycles or official statements. Still, low-probability risks such as severe component shortages, unexpected hardware delays, or regulatory blocks in major markets could shift timelines, though historical precedent shows these rarely derail the overall schedule.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$235,390Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Apple's established pattern of annual flagship smartphone launches each September underpins the 99.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Traders cite the company's reliable development cadence, mature supply chain for advanced chips and displays, and consistent track record since the original iPhone as key drivers of this consensus. No major deviations have surfaced in recent cycles or official statements. Still, low-probability risks such as severe component shortages, unexpected hardware delays, or regulatory blocks in major markets could shift timelines, though historical precedent shows these rarely derail the overall schedule.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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