Apple’s pivot away from a near-term Vision Pro successor underpins the 95.5% market-implied probability against a release before 2027. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman reported in May and June 2026 that the mixed-reality headset category is effectively “on ice” while Apple prioritizes AI smart glasses for a late-2027 launch, after canceling the lighter, lower-cost Vision Air project and reassigning engineers. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo corroborated the roadmap shift under incoming leadership, citing lukewarm adoption of the original 2024 model and its October 2025 M5 refresh due to high cost and weight. Credible timelines now point to a true next-generation headset no earlier than late 2028, reflecting the engineering challenges of simultaneously slimming the form factor and reducing price. A surprise acceleration or reinterpretation of an incremental update remains possible but improbable given the consistent internal reallocation signals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
5% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
5% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s pivot away from a near-term Vision Pro successor underpins the 95.5% market-implied probability against a release before 2027. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman reported in May and June 2026 that the mixed-reality headset category is effectively “on ice” while Apple prioritizes AI smart glasses for a late-2027 launch, after canceling the lighter, lower-cost Vision Air project and reassigning engineers. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo corroborated the roadmap shift under incoming leadership, citing lukewarm adoption of the original 2024 model and its October 2025 M5 refresh due to high cost and weight. Credible timelines now point to a true next-generation headset no earlier than late 2028, reflecting the engineering challenges of simultaneously slimming the form factor and reducing price. A surprise acceleration or reinterpretation of an incremental update remains possible but improbable given the consistent internal reallocation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$6,191Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s pivot away from a near-term Vision Pro successor underpins the 95.5% market-implied probability against a release before 2027. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman reported in May and June 2026 that the mixed-reality headset category is effectively “on ice” while Apple prioritizes AI smart glasses for a late-2027 launch, after canceling the lighter, lower-cost Vision Air project and reassigning engineers. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo corroborated the roadmap shift under incoming leadership, citing lukewarm adoption of the original 2024 model and its October 2025 M5 refresh due to high cost and weight. Credible timelines now point to a true next-generation headset no earlier than late 2028, reflecting the engineering challenges of simultaneously slimming the form factor and reducing price. A surprise acceleration or reinterpretation of an incremental update remains possible but improbable given the consistent internal reallocation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,191Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Apple’s pivot away from a near-term Vision Pro successor underpins the 95.5% market-implied probability against a release before 2027. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman reported in May and June 2026 that the mixed-reality headset category is effectively “on ice” while Apple prioritizes AI smart glasses for a late-2027 launch, after canceling the lighter, lower-cost Vision Air project and reassigning engineers. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo corroborated the roadmap shift under incoming leadership, citing lukewarm adoption of the original 2024 model and its October 2025 M5 refresh due to high cost and weight. Credible timelines now point to a true next-generation headset no earlier than late 2028, reflecting the engineering challenges of simultaneously slimming the form factor and reducing price. A surprise acceleration or reinterpretation of an incremental update remains possible but improbable given the consistent internal reallocation signals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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