Trader consensus at 91.5% for no Category 4 hurricane landfall in the US before 2027 stems primarily from the ongoing 2026 Atlantic season's subdued major hurricane activity and typical late-season environmental constraints. National Hurricane Center and NOAA guidance show steering currents and increasing vertical wind shear often preventing sustained winds of 130 mph or higher from reaching the coastline, consistent with historical patterns where Category 4+ US landfalls occur in roughly one-third of seasons. With peak activity passing and cooler waters ahead, model consensus points to limited intensification potential. Any shift would require an unusually strong late-forming system defying current forecasts and analogs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUn ouragan de catégorie 4 touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis avant 2027 ?
Un ouragan de catégorie 4 touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis avant 2027 ?
Oui
9% chance
$343,898 Vol.
$343,898 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
9% chance
$343,898 Vol.
$343,898 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus at 91.5% for no Category 4 hurricane landfall in the US before 2027 stems primarily from the ongoing 2026 Atlantic season's subdued major hurricane activity and typical late-season environmental constraints. National Hurricane Center and NOAA guidance show steering currents and increasing vertical wind shear often preventing sustained winds of 130 mph or higher from reaching the coastline, consistent with historical patterns where Category 4+ US landfalls occur in roughly one-third of seasons. With peak activity passing and cooler waters ahead, model consensus points to limited intensification potential. Any shift would require an unusually strong late-forming system defying current forecasts and analogs.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Marché ouvert : Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$343,898Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus at 91.5% for no Category 4 hurricane landfall in the US before 2027 stems primarily from the ongoing 2026 Atlantic season's subdued major hurricane activity and typical late-season environmental constraints. National Hurricane Center and NOAA guidance show steering currents and increasing vertical wind shear often preventing sustained winds of 130 mph or higher from reaching the coastline, consistent with historical patterns where Category 4+ US landfalls occur in roughly one-third of seasons. With peak activity passing and cooler waters ahead, model consensus points to limited intensification potential. Any shift would require an unusually strong late-forming system defying current forecasts and analogs.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$343,898Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus at 91.5% for no Category 4 hurricane landfall in the US before 2027 stems primarily from the ongoing 2026 Atlantic season's subdued major hurricane activity and typical late-season environmental constraints. National Hurricane Center and NOAA guidance show steering currents and increasing vertical wind shear often preventing sustained winds of 130 mph or higher from reaching the coastline, consistent with historical patterns where Category 4+ US landfalls occur in roughly one-third of seasons. With peak activity passing and cooler waters ahead, model consensus points to limited intensification potential. Any shift would require an unusually strong late-forming system defying current forecasts and analogs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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