Strong El Niño conditions have driven the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's extreme inactivity, with high wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures suppressing intensification across the basin. As of September 20, six named storms have formed but zero reached hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale, setting a satellite-era record for the latest first hurricane and yielding just 5.1 accumulated cyclone energy units—far below the 1991–2020 average. NOAA and other forecasts anticipated a below-normal season with only 2–6 hurricanes possible, and the post-peak period offers limited windows for late development before November 30. Trader consensus favoring 1–3 hurricanes (62.5% implied probability) or zero (27%) reflects these persistent unfavorable conditions, though any unexpected model shift toward reduced shear could allow a small late-season uptick.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien d'ouragans se formeront pendant la saison des ouragans de l'Atlantique en 2026 ?
Combien d'ouragans se formeront pendant la saison des ouragans de l'Atlantique en 2026 ?
1-3 62%
0 29%
4-6 3.9%
7+ <1%
$37,342 Vol.
$37,342 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
0
29%
1-3
62%
4-6
4%
7+
1%
1-3 62%
0 29%
4-6 3.9%
7+ <1%
$37,342 Vol.
$37,342 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
0
$18,331 Vol.
29%
1-3
$6,102 Vol.
62%
4-6
$10,197 Vol.
4%
7+
$2,712 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Strong El Niño conditions have driven the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's extreme inactivity, with high wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures suppressing intensification across the basin. As of September 20, six named storms have formed but zero reached hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale, setting a satellite-era record for the latest first hurricane and yielding just 5.1 accumulated cyclone energy units—far below the 1991–2020 average. NOAA and other forecasts anticipated a below-normal season with only 2–6 hurricanes possible, and the post-peak period offers limited windows for late development before November 30. Trader consensus favoring 1–3 hurricanes (62.5% implied probability) or zero (27%) reflects these persistent unfavorable conditions, though any unexpected model shift toward reduced shear could allow a small late-season uptick.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Marché ouvert : Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
Volume
$37,342Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Strong El Niño conditions have driven the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's extreme inactivity, with high wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures suppressing intensification across the basin. As of September 20, six named storms have formed but zero reached hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale, setting a satellite-era record for the latest first hurricane and yielding just 5.1 accumulated cyclone energy units—far below the 1991–2020 average. NOAA and other forecasts anticipated a below-normal season with only 2–6 hurricanes possible, and the post-peak period offers limited windows for late development before November 30. Trader consensus favoring 1–3 hurricanes (62.5% implied probability) or zero (27%) reflects these persistent unfavorable conditions, though any unexpected model shift toward reduced shear could allow a small late-season uptick.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Volume
$37,342Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions have driven the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's extreme inactivity, with high wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures suppressing intensification across the basin. As of September 20, six named storms have formed but zero reached hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale, setting a satellite-era record for the latest first hurricane and yielding just 5.1 accumulated cyclone energy units—far below the 1991–2020 average. NOAA and other forecasts anticipated a below-normal season with only 2–6 hurricanes possible, and the post-peak period offers limited windows for late development before November 30. Trader consensus favoring 1–3 hurricanes (62.5% implied probability) or zero (27%) reflects these persistent unfavorable conditions, though any unexpected model shift toward reduced shear could allow a small late-season uptick.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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