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icon for Y aura-t-il une urgence du réseau électrique avant le 1er octobre ?
Climat Et Science·énergie

Y aura-t-il une urgence du réseau électrique avant le 1er octobre ?

icon for Y aura-t-il une urgence du réseau électrique avant le 1er octobre ?
Climat Et Science·énergie

Y aura-t-il une urgence du réseau électrique avant le 1er octobre ?

$24,031 Vol.

2 oct. 2026
Polymarket

$24,031 Vol.

Polymarket

Californie (CAISO)

$3,356 Vol.

3%

Texas (ERCOT)

$2,282 Vol.

6%

Centre des États-Unis (SPP)

$945 Vol.

36%

Mid-Atlantic (PJM)

$1,762 Vol.

1%

New York (NYISO)

$1,890 Vol.

6%

Nouvelle-Angleterre (ISO-NE)

$802 Vol.

3%

This market resolves "Yes" if the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), which operates the electric grid serving most of California, declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM PT on September 30, 2026. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official CAISO communication — its newsroom (https://www.caiso.com/about/news), market notices, or real-time system-condition (Today's Outlook) postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM CT on September 30, 2026. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official ERCOT communication — its news releases (https://www.ercot.com/news/releases), market notices, or real-time grid-condition postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) — the regional transmission organization serving all or part of 17 states across the central and western U.S. — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) for any of its balancing authority areas from this market's creation through 11:59 PM CT on September 30, 2026. "Central US" in the title is a general label — only an SPP declaration counts, and emergencies in other central-U.S. grid operators do not qualify. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official SPP communication — its press releases (https://www.spp.org/newsroom/press-releases/), Grid Notices, or its real-time Current Grid Conditions page — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if PJM Interconnection declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) anywhere across its footprint from this market's creation through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. PJM serves all or part of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia; a qualifying declaration anywhere in that footprint counts, and "Mid-Atlantic" in the title is only a general label. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official PJM communication — its Inside Lines blog (https://insidelines.pjm.com/), emergency-procedure or market messages, or real-time system-status postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official NYISO communication — its News & Media page (https://www.nyiso.com/news-and-media), market notices, or real-time system-conditions postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if ISO New England (ISO-NE) — the grid operator for the six New England states of Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official ISO New England communication — its press releases (https://www.iso-ne.com/about/news-media/press-releases), market notices, or real-time system-status postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) — the regional transmission organization serving all or part of 15 U.S. states from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) for any of its balancing authority areas from this market's creation through 11:59 PM CT on September 30, 2026. "Midwest" in the title is a general label — only a MISO declaration counts, and emergencies in other grid operators do not qualify. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official MISO communication — its Media Center (https://www.misoenergy.org/meet-miso/media-center/), market notices, or real-time grid-condition postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".Rising electricity demand from data centers, AI, and manufacturing continues to strain major grids including PJM and MISO, where NERC’s 2026 Summer Reliability Assessment flagged elevated shortfall risks during extreme heat despite adequate normal-condition margins. Early September 2026 heat waves pushed peaks near records, triggering DOE emergency orders authorizing backup generation and maximum-generation alerts to avert rotating outages. Transformer shortages, already estimated at 15% nationally, face added pressure from the August national emergency order restricting certain foreign equipment. Cooling temperatures through mid-September should ease load, yet any late-season warm spell, storms, or unexpected outages could still prompt an Energy Emergency Alert before October 1.

This market resolves "Yes" if the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), which operates the electric grid serving most of California, declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM PT on September 30, 2026.

A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.

The declaration will be confirmed by any official CAISO communication — its newsroom (https://www.caiso.com/about/news), market notices, or real-time system-condition (Today's Outlook) postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward.

Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), which operates the electric grid serving most of California, declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM PT on September 30, 2026. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official CAISO communication — its newsroom (https://www.caiso.com/about/news), market notices, or real-time system-condition (Today's Outlook) postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
Volume
$24,031
Date de fin
2 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 5:25 PM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...
This market resolves "Yes" if the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), which operates the electric grid serving most of California, declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM PT on September 30, 2026. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official CAISO communication — its newsroom (https://www.caiso.com/about/news), market notices, or real-time system-condition (Today's Outlook) postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM CT on September 30, 2026. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official ERCOT communication — its news releases (https://www.ercot.com/news/releases), market notices, or real-time grid-condition postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) — the regional transmission organization serving all or part of 17 states across the central and western U.S. — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) for any of its balancing authority areas from this market's creation through 11:59 PM CT on September 30, 2026. "Central US" in the title is a general label — only an SPP declaration counts, and emergencies in other central-U.S. grid operators do not qualify. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official SPP communication — its press releases (https://www.spp.org/newsroom/press-releases/), Grid Notices, or its real-time Current Grid Conditions page — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if PJM Interconnection declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) anywhere across its footprint from this market's creation through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. PJM serves all or part of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia; a qualifying declaration anywhere in that footprint counts, and "Mid-Atlantic" in the title is only a general label. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official PJM communication — its Inside Lines blog (https://insidelines.pjm.com/), emergency-procedure or market messages, or real-time system-status postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official NYISO communication — its News & Media page (https://www.nyiso.com/news-and-media), market notices, or real-time system-conditions postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if ISO New England (ISO-NE) — the grid operator for the six New England states of Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official ISO New England communication — its press releases (https://www.iso-ne.com/about/news-media/press-releases), market notices, or real-time system-status postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) — the regional transmission organization serving all or part of 15 U.S. states from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) for any of its balancing authority areas from this market's creation through 11:59 PM CT on September 30, 2026. "Midwest" in the title is a general label — only a MISO declaration counts, and emergencies in other grid operators do not qualify. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official MISO communication — its Media Center (https://www.misoenergy.org/meet-miso/media-center/), market notices, or real-time grid-condition postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".Rising electricity demand from data centers, AI, and manufacturing continues to strain major grids including PJM and MISO, where NERC’s 2026 Summer Reliability Assessment flagged elevated shortfall risks during extreme heat despite adequate normal-condition margins. Early September 2026 heat waves pushed peaks near records, triggering DOE emergency orders authorizing backup generation and maximum-generation alerts to avert rotating outages. Transformer shortages, already estimated at 15% nationally, face added pressure from the August national emergency order restricting certain foreign equipment. Cooling temperatures through mid-September should ease load, yet any late-season warm spell, storms, or unexpected outages could still prompt an Energy Emergency Alert before October 1.

This market resolves "Yes" if the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), which operates the electric grid serving most of California, declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM PT on September 30, 2026.

A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.

The declaration will be confirmed by any official CAISO communication — its newsroom (https://www.caiso.com/about/news), market notices, or real-time system-condition (Today's Outlook) postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward.

Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), which operates the electric grid serving most of California, declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM PT on September 30, 2026. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official CAISO communication — its newsroom (https://www.caiso.com/about/news), market notices, or real-time system-condition (Today's Outlook) postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
Volume
$24,031
Date de fin
2 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 5:25 PM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...

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Questions fréquentes

« Y aura-t-il une urgence du réseau électrique avant le 1er octobre ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 7 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Midwest (MISO) » à 100%, suivi de « Centre des États-Unis (SPP) » à 36%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 100¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Y aura-t-il une urgence du réseau électrique avant le 1er octobre ? » a généré $24K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Aug 12, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Y aura-t-il une urgence du réseau électrique avant le 1er octobre ? », parcourez les 7 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Y aura-t-il une urgence du réseau électrique avant le 1er octobre ? » est « Midwest (MISO) » à 100%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Centre des États-Unis (SPP) » à 36%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Y aura-t-il une urgence du réseau électrique avant le 1er octobre ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.