Recent releases have propelled OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (max) to the top of MathArena with 90.7% expected performance across uncontaminated competitions, outpacing Anthropic’s Claude-Opus-5 and Claude-Fable-5.1 models at roughly 72%. This gap reflects OpenAI’s edge in scaling reasoning on fresh AIME, USAMO, and ArXivMath problems, while Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max additions show incremental gains but remain behind. Traders see continued frontier-model releases through year-end as the main catalyst, tempered by benchmark saturation on standard contests and slower progress on harder proof-based or research-level tasks. Key upcoming events include potential new model drops from OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI that could push scores higher before December 31.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$119,649 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
1575
74%
1600
29%
$119,649 Vol.
1575
$38,790 Vol.
74%
1600
$12,254 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases have propelled OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (max) to the top of MathArena with 90.7% expected performance across uncontaminated competitions, outpacing Anthropic’s Claude-Opus-5 and Claude-Fable-5.1 models at roughly 72%. This gap reflects OpenAI’s edge in scaling reasoning on fresh AIME, USAMO, and ArXivMath problems, while Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max additions show incremental gains but remain behind. Traders see continued frontier-model releases through year-end as the main catalyst, tempered by benchmark saturation on standard contests and slower progress on harder proof-based or research-level tasks. Key upcoming events include potential new model drops from OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI that could push scores higher before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Marché ouvert : Apr 2, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$119,649Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Apr 2, 2026, 6:07 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases have propelled OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (max) to the top of MathArena with 90.7% expected performance across uncontaminated competitions, outpacing Anthropic’s Claude-Opus-5 and Claude-Fable-5.1 models at roughly 72%. This gap reflects OpenAI’s edge in scaling reasoning on fresh AIME, USAMO, and ArXivMath problems, while Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max additions show incremental gains but remain behind. Traders see continued frontier-model releases through year-end as the main catalyst, tempered by benchmark saturation on standard contests and slower progress on harder proof-based or research-level tasks. Key upcoming events include potential new model drops from OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI that could push scores higher before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$119,649Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Apr 2, 2026, 6:07 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Recent releases have propelled OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (max) to the top of MathArena with 90.7% expected performance across uncontaminated competitions, outpacing Anthropic’s Claude-Opus-5 and Claude-Fable-5.1 models at roughly 72%. This gap reflects OpenAI’s edge in scaling reasoning on fresh AIME, USAMO, and ArXivMath problems, while Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max additions show incremental gains but remain behind. Traders see continued frontier-model releases through year-end as the main catalyst, tempered by benchmark saturation on standard contests and slower progress on harder proof-based or research-level tasks. Key upcoming events include potential new model drops from OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI that could push scores higher before December 31.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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