High turnover among political appointees has marked President Trump’s second term, with nearly 1,000 non-Senate-confirmed officials departing in the first 18 months—more than double prior administrations at comparable points—alongside several Senate-confirmed cabinet exits earlier in 2026. Recent months show continued movement at lower levels and isolated tensions, such as discussions around Defense Department staffing under Pete Hegseth and reported strains involving other officials, yet no confirmed imminent departures among the listed names. Susie Wiles remains a central White House figure, Mike Waltz holds the UN ambassador post, and broader cabinet activity centers on policy implementation and midterm outreach rather than exits. These patterns, combined with the absence of fresh triggers in the past 30 days, underpin trader consensus favoring stability through 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNone before 2027 61.9%
Pete Hegseth 8.4%
Susie Wiles 8.2%
Mike Waltz 6.3%
$69,267 Vol.
$69,267 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
None before 2027
62%
Pete Hegseth
8%
Susie Wiles
8%
Mike Waltz
6%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
6%
Scott Bessent
4%
Doug Burgum
3%
Brooke Rollins
2%
Russell T. Vought
2%
Marco Rubio
2%
John Ratcliffe
2%
J.D. Vance
1%
Sean Duffy
1%
Scott Turner
1%
Chris Wright
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Jamieson Greer
1%
Kelly Loeffler
1%
Howard Lutnick
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Lee Zeldin
<1%
None before 2027 61.9%
Pete Hegseth 8.4%
Susie Wiles 8.2%
Mike Waltz 6.3%
$69,267 Vol.
$69,267 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
None before 2027
$27,041 Vol.
62%
Pete Hegseth
$2,535 Vol.
8%
Susie Wiles
$3,930 Vol.
8%
Mike Waltz
$1,000 Vol.
6%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$19,359 Vol.
6%
Scott Bessent
$2,976 Vol.
4%
Doug Burgum
$1,125 Vol.
3%
Brooke Rollins
$934 Vol.
2%
Russell T. Vought
$695 Vol.
2%
Marco Rubio
$688 Vol.
2%
John Ratcliffe
$716 Vol.
2%
J.D. Vance
$730 Vol.
1%
Sean Duffy
$818 Vol.
1%
Scott Turner
$489 Vol.
1%
Chris Wright
$888 Vol.
1%
Linda McMahon
$1,094 Vol.
1%
Jamieson Greer
$682 Vol.
1%
Kelly Loeffler
$961 Vol.
1%
Howard Lutnick
$1,018 Vol.
1%
Doug Collins
$792 Vol.
1%
Lee Zeldin
$797 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.High turnover among political appointees has marked President Trump’s second term, with nearly 1,000 non-Senate-confirmed officials departing in the first 18 months—more than double prior administrations at comparable points—alongside several Senate-confirmed cabinet exits earlier in 2026. Recent months show continued movement at lower levels and isolated tensions, such as discussions around Defense Department staffing under Pete Hegseth and reported strains involving other officials, yet no confirmed imminent departures among the listed names. Susie Wiles remains a central White House figure, Mike Waltz holds the UN ambassador post, and broader cabinet activity centers on policy implementation and midterm outreach rather than exits. These patterns, combined with the absence of fresh triggers in the past 30 days, underpin trader consensus favoring stability through 2026.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Marché ouvert : May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$69,267Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.High turnover among political appointees has marked President Trump’s second term, with nearly 1,000 non-Senate-confirmed officials departing in the first 18 months—more than double prior administrations at comparable points—alongside several Senate-confirmed cabinet exits earlier in 2026. Recent months show continued movement at lower levels and isolated tensions, such as discussions around Defense Department staffing under Pete Hegseth and reported strains involving other officials, yet no confirmed imminent departures among the listed names. Susie Wiles remains a central White House figure, Mike Waltz holds the UN ambassador post, and broader cabinet activity centers on policy implementation and midterm outreach rather than exits. These patterns, combined with the absence of fresh triggers in the past 30 days, underpin trader consensus favoring stability through 2026.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$69,267Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...High turnover among political appointees has marked President Trump’s second term, with nearly 1,000 non-Senate-confirmed officials departing in the first 18 months—more than double prior administrations at comparable points—alongside several Senate-confirmed cabinet exits earlier in 2026. Recent months show continued movement at lower levels and isolated tensions, such as discussions around Defense Department staffing under Pete Hegseth and reported strains involving other officials, yet no confirmed imminent departures among the listed names. Susie Wiles remains a central White House figure, Mike Waltz holds the UN ambassador post, and broader cabinet activity centers on policy implementation and midterm outreach rather than exits. These patterns, combined with the absence of fresh triggers in the past 30 days, underpin trader consensus favoring stability through 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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