Anthropic faces mounting competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, which has captured growing enterprise share, prompting internal discussions of an imminent Claude Opus update ahead of a potential IPO. Recent rumors of a mid-to-late September launch for a new Opus variant, including possible routing changes and efficiency gains, align with the model’s historical cadence of roughly monthly iterations since Opus 5 in July. Trader consensus, reflected in the 44.8% implied probability for September 21 and 18% for September 22, appears driven by credible leaks and the company’s pattern of rapid large language model releases, while the 24.5% chance of no release by September 30 accounts for safety reviews and CEO Dario Amodei’s recent call to slow capability advances. Key near-term catalysts include any official announcement or API documentation updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour21 septembre 44.3%
Aucune sortie d'ici le 30 septembre 25%
22 septembre 18%
24 septembre 11%
$22,427 Vol.
$22,427 Vol.
19 sept. 2026
19 septembre
<1%
20 septembre
1%
21 septembre
44%
22 septembre
18%
23 septembre
1%
24 septembre
11%
25 septembre
2%
26 septembre
<1%
27 septembre
<1%
28 septembre
<1%
29 septembre
1%
30 septembre
1%
Aucune sortie d'ici le 30 septembre
25%
21 septembre 44.3%
Aucune sortie d'ici le 30 septembre 25%
22 septembre 18%
24 septembre 11%
$22,427 Vol.
$22,427 Vol.
19 sept. 2026
19 septembre
$669 Vol.
<1%
20 septembre
$1,149 Vol.
1%
21 septembre
$6,954 Vol.
44%
22 septembre
$1,748 Vol.
18%
23 septembre
$1,057 Vol.
1%
24 septembre
$2,200 Vol.
11%
25 septembre
$784 Vol.
2%
26 septembre
$578 Vol.
<1%
27 septembre
$776 Vol.
<1%
28 septembre
$345 Vol.
<1%
29 septembre
$1,178 Vol.
1%
30 septembre
$1,256 Vol.
1%
Aucune sortie d'ici le 30 septembre
$2,422 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic faces mounting competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, which has captured growing enterprise share, prompting internal discussions of an imminent Claude Opus update ahead of a potential IPO. Recent rumors of a mid-to-late September launch for a new Opus variant, including possible routing changes and efficiency gains, align with the model’s historical cadence of roughly monthly iterations since Opus 5 in July. Trader consensus, reflected in the 44.8% implied probability for September 21 and 18% for September 22, appears driven by credible leaks and the company’s pattern of rapid large language model releases, while the 24.5% chance of no release by September 30 accounts for safety reviews and CEO Dario Amodei’s recent call to slow capability advances. Key near-term catalysts include any official announcement or API documentation updates.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$22,427Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic faces mounting competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, which has captured growing enterprise share, prompting internal discussions of an imminent Claude Opus update ahead of a potential IPO. Recent rumors of a mid-to-late September launch for a new Opus variant, including possible routing changes and efficiency gains, align with the model’s historical cadence of roughly monthly iterations since Opus 5 in July. Trader consensus, reflected in the 44.8% implied probability for September 21 and 18% for September 22, appears driven by credible leaks and the company’s pattern of rapid large language model releases, while the 24.5% chance of no release by September 30 accounts for safety reviews and CEO Dario Amodei’s recent call to slow capability advances. Key near-term catalysts include any official announcement or API documentation updates.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$22,427Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic faces mounting competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, which has captured growing enterprise share, prompting internal discussions of an imminent Claude Opus update ahead of a potential IPO. Recent rumors of a mid-to-late September launch for a new Opus variant, including possible routing changes and efficiency gains, align with the model’s historical cadence of roughly monthly iterations since Opus 5 in July. Trader consensus, reflected in the 44.8% implied probability for September 21 and 18% for September 22, appears driven by credible leaks and the company’s pattern of rapid large language model releases, while the 24.5% chance of no release by September 30 accounts for safety reviews and CEO Dario Amodei’s recent call to slow capability advances. Key near-term catalysts include any official announcement or API documentation updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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