Jennifer McClellan, the Democratic incumbent, holds a commanding lead in the VA-04 general election due to the district's strong partisan lean, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+17 and prior Democratic presidential margins exceeding 30 points. Both parties' August 2026 primaries were uncontested, allowing her to focus resources on the November 3 ballot against Republican nominee Robert Murray and independent Joan Bell. Recent activities, including joint events with Sen. Tim Kaine on affordability and SNAP impacts, reinforce her visibility without notable opposition momentum. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. A late scandal, health event, or sharp national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the gap, though the structural advantages make such shifts improbable before election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
VA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$41,614 Vol.
$41,614 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Jennifer McClellan (D)
96%
Robert Murray (R)
2%
$41,614 Vol.
$41,614 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Jennifer McClellan (D)
$12,217 Vol.
96%
Robert Murray (R)
$29,397 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jennifer McClellan, the Democratic incumbent, holds a commanding lead in the VA-04 general election due to the district's strong partisan lean, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+17 and prior Democratic presidential margins exceeding 30 points. Both parties' August 2026 primaries were uncontested, allowing her to focus resources on the November 3 ballot against Republican nominee Robert Murray and independent Joan Bell. Recent activities, including joint events with Sen. Tim Kaine on affordability and SNAP impacts, reinforce her visibility without notable opposition momentum. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. A late scandal, health event, or sharp national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the gap, though the structural advantages make such shifts improbable before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$41,614Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jennifer McClellan, the Democratic incumbent, holds a commanding lead in the VA-04 general election due to the district's strong partisan lean, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+17 and prior Democratic presidential margins exceeding 30 points. Both parties' August 2026 primaries were uncontested, allowing her to focus resources on the November 3 ballot against Republican nominee Robert Murray and independent Joan Bell. Recent activities, including joint events with Sen. Tim Kaine on affordability and SNAP impacts, reinforce her visibility without notable opposition momentum. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. A late scandal, health event, or sharp national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the gap, though the structural advantages make such shifts improbable before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$41,614Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Jennifer McClellan, the Democratic incumbent, holds a commanding lead in the VA-04 general election due to the district's strong partisan lean, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+17 and prior Democratic presidential margins exceeding 30 points. Both parties' August 2026 primaries were uncontested, allowing her to focus resources on the November 3 ballot against Republican nominee Robert Murray and independent Joan Bell. Recent activities, including joint events with Sen. Tim Kaine on affordability and SNAP impacts, reinforce her visibility without notable opposition momentum. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. A late scandal, health event, or sharp national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the gap, though the structural advantages make such shifts improbable before election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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