Brendan Boyle's position as incumbent in Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District, centered in central and northeastern Philadelphia, anchors the strong trader consensus favoring his reelection. The district's Democratic lean is reflected in nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with Boyle's 2024 victory margin exceeding 40 points. Both candidates advanced unopposed in the May 2026 primaries, leaving the November 3 general as a head-to-head contest. Boyle maintains a substantial fundraising edge and established campaign infrastructure, while challenger Jessica Arriaga, a healthcare professional entering her first congressional race, has reported minimal resources. Forecasters and prediction market pricing align on these structural factors. A major scandal, significant health event for Boyle, or unprecedented national Republican surge could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in this district suggest limited room for such shifts before Election Day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPA-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
PA-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$39,361 Vol.
$39,361 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Brendan Boyle (D)
95%
Jessica Arriaga (R)
3%
$39,361 Vol.
$39,361 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Brendan Boyle (D)
$6,377 Vol.
95%
Jessica Arriaga (R)
$32,984 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Brendan Boyle's position as incumbent in Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District, centered in central and northeastern Philadelphia, anchors the strong trader consensus favoring his reelection. The district's Democratic lean is reflected in nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with Boyle's 2024 victory margin exceeding 40 points. Both candidates advanced unopposed in the May 2026 primaries, leaving the November 3 general as a head-to-head contest. Boyle maintains a substantial fundraising edge and established campaign infrastructure, while challenger Jessica Arriaga, a healthcare professional entering her first congressional race, has reported minimal resources. Forecasters and prediction market pricing align on these structural factors. A major scandal, significant health event for Boyle, or unprecedented national Republican surge could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in this district suggest limited room for such shifts before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$39,361Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Brendan Boyle's position as incumbent in Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District, centered in central and northeastern Philadelphia, anchors the strong trader consensus favoring his reelection. The district's Democratic lean is reflected in nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with Boyle's 2024 victory margin exceeding 40 points. Both candidates advanced unopposed in the May 2026 primaries, leaving the November 3 general as a head-to-head contest. Boyle maintains a substantial fundraising edge and established campaign infrastructure, while challenger Jessica Arriaga, a healthcare professional entering her first congressional race, has reported minimal resources. Forecasters and prediction market pricing align on these structural factors. A major scandal, significant health event for Boyle, or unprecedented national Republican surge could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in this district suggest limited room for such shifts before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$39,361Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Brendan Boyle's position as incumbent in Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District, centered in central and northeastern Philadelphia, anchors the strong trader consensus favoring his reelection. The district's Democratic lean is reflected in nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with Boyle's 2024 victory margin exceeding 40 points. Both candidates advanced unopposed in the May 2026 primaries, leaving the November 3 general as a head-to-head contest. Boyle maintains a substantial fundraising edge and established campaign infrastructure, while challenger Jessica Arriaga, a healthcare professional entering her first congressional race, has reported minimal resources. Forecasters and prediction market pricing align on these structural factors. A major scandal, significant health event for Boyle, or unprecedented national Republican surge could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in this district suggest limited room for such shifts before Election Day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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