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icon for OR-05 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
Politique·Midterms

OR-05 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre

icon for OR-05 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
Politique·Midterms

OR-05 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre

Polymarket

$12,289 Vol.

Polymarket

$12,289 Vol.

Janelle Bynum (D)

$6,231 Vol.

93%

Patti Adair (R)

$6,058 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Janelle Bynum holds a commanding lead in the Oregon 5th District race due to her 2024 flip of the seat, strong May 2026 primary performance exceeding 80 percent, and substantial fundraising advantage with over $2.7 million cash on hand. The district’s voter registration favors Democrats over Republicans, and nonpartisan ratings from the Cook Political Report and Decision Desk HQ classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic. Republican nominee Patti Adair, a Deschutes County commissioner who won her primary, faces structural headwinds in a district trending toward Democrats amid suburban shifts. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent reflects these fundamentals. Potential challenges include sharp national political swings, unusually high Republican turnout, or major late-cycle developments such as scandals or candidate health issues that could alter the trajectory before November 3.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$12,289
Date de fin
4 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ET

Résolveur

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Janelle Bynum holds a commanding lead in the Oregon 5th District race due to her 2024 flip of the seat, strong May 2026 primary performance exceeding 80 percent, and substantial fundraising advantage with over $2.7 million cash on hand. The district’s voter registration favors Democrats over Republicans, and nonpartisan ratings from the Cook Political Report and Decision Desk HQ classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic. Republican nominee Patti Adair, a Deschutes County commissioner who won her primary, faces structural headwinds in a district trending toward Democrats amid suburban shifts. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent reflects these fundamentals. Potential challenges include sharp national political swings, unusually high Republican turnout, or major late-cycle developments such as scandals or candidate health issues that could alter the trajectory before November 3.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$12,289
Date de fin
4 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ET

Résolveur

0x2F5e3684c...

Connexes

icon for Le Parti démocrate remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre pour l'OR-06 ?

Le Parti démocrate remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre pour l'OR-06 ?

96%
Oui
icon for Le Parti républicain va-t-il remporter le siège de la Chambre pour l'OR-02 ?

Le Parti républicain va-t-il remporter le siège de la Chambre pour l'OR-02 ?

95%
Oui
icon for Le Parti démocrate remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre OR-04 ?

Le Parti démocrate remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre OR-04 ?

94%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« OR-05 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Janelle Bynum (D) » à 93%, suivi de « Patti Adair (R) » à 6%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 93¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 93% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « OR-05 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre » a généré $12.3K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Dec 16, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « OR-05 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « OR-05 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre » est « Janelle Bynum (D) » à 93%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 93% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Patti Adair (R) » à 6%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « OR-05 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.