Incumbent Democrat Val Hoyle holds a commanding position in Oregon’s 4th Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, backed by the seat’s D+6 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican investment and Hoyle’s primary victory with roughly 75 percent of the vote in May. Her Republican opponent, Monique DeSpain, secured her nomination by a wide margin but faces structural headwinds in a district that includes Democratic strongholds around Eugene and Corvallis. Recent fundraising reports show DeSpain remaining competitive in quarterly hauls, though Hoyle maintains a modest cash-on-hand edge. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for incumbents in similar districts, while late developments such as turnout shifts, third-party effects from the Pacific Green nominee, or unexpected national conditions could still alter the outcome before election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOR-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
OR-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$21,760 Vol.
$21,760 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Val Hoyle (D)
94%
Monique DeSpain (R)
6%
$21,760 Vol.
$21,760 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Val Hoyle (D)
$14,789 Vol.
94%
Monique DeSpain (R)
$6,972 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Val Hoyle holds a commanding position in Oregon’s 4th Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, backed by the seat’s D+6 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican investment and Hoyle’s primary victory with roughly 75 percent of the vote in May. Her Republican opponent, Monique DeSpain, secured her nomination by a wide margin but faces structural headwinds in a district that includes Democratic strongholds around Eugene and Corvallis. Recent fundraising reports show DeSpain remaining competitive in quarterly hauls, though Hoyle maintains a modest cash-on-hand edge. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for incumbents in similar districts, while late developments such as turnout shifts, third-party effects from the Pacific Green nominee, or unexpected national conditions could still alter the outcome before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$21,760Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Val Hoyle holds a commanding position in Oregon’s 4th Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, backed by the seat’s D+6 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican investment and Hoyle’s primary victory with roughly 75 percent of the vote in May. Her Republican opponent, Monique DeSpain, secured her nomination by a wide margin but faces structural headwinds in a district that includes Democratic strongholds around Eugene and Corvallis. Recent fundraising reports show DeSpain remaining competitive in quarterly hauls, though Hoyle maintains a modest cash-on-hand edge. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for incumbents in similar districts, while late developments such as turnout shifts, third-party effects from the Pacific Green nominee, or unexpected national conditions could still alter the outcome before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,760Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Val Hoyle holds a commanding position in Oregon’s 4th Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, backed by the seat’s D+6 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican investment and Hoyle’s primary victory with roughly 75 percent of the vote in May. Her Republican opponent, Monique DeSpain, secured her nomination by a wide margin but faces structural headwinds in a district that includes Democratic strongholds around Eugene and Corvallis. Recent fundraising reports show DeSpain remaining competitive in quarterly hauls, though Hoyle maintains a modest cash-on-hand edge. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for incumbents in similar districts, while late developments such as turnout shifts, third-party effects from the Pacific Green nominee, or unexpected national conditions could still alter the outcome before election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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