OpenAI’s market-implied odds of a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027 sit at just 7.5% because the company has shifted its timeline toward 2027 to secure that valuation target. CEO Sam Altman rejected lower-price options presented by advisers after June 2026 confidential S-1 filing, citing volatile public tech markets and SpaceX’s post-IPO share drop as cautionary signals. CFO Sarah Friar told staff in August that the firm expects to list in 2027 unless revenue inflects sharply, while ongoing heavy losses and infrastructure commitments continue to favor private status. Trader consensus reflects the passed September window and absence of any public registration or roadshow. A sudden revenue surge or improved market sentiment could still accelerate plans, though both appear unlikely in the remaining months of 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
8% chance
$302,071 Vol.
$302,071 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
8% chance
$302,071 Vol.
$302,071 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.OpenAI’s market-implied odds of a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027 sit at just 7.5% because the company has shifted its timeline toward 2027 to secure that valuation target. CEO Sam Altman rejected lower-price options presented by advisers after June 2026 confidential S-1 filing, citing volatile public tech markets and SpaceX’s post-IPO share drop as cautionary signals. CFO Sarah Friar told staff in August that the firm expects to list in 2027 unless revenue inflects sharply, while ongoing heavy losses and infrastructure commitments continue to favor private status. Trader consensus reflects the passed September window and absence of any public registration or roadshow. A sudden revenue surge or improved market sentiment could still accelerate plans, though both appear unlikely in the remaining months of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ET
Volume
$302,071Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.OpenAI’s market-implied odds of a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027 sit at just 7.5% because the company has shifted its timeline toward 2027 to secure that valuation target. CEO Sam Altman rejected lower-price options presented by advisers after June 2026 confidential S-1 filing, citing volatile public tech markets and SpaceX’s post-IPO share drop as cautionary signals. CFO Sarah Friar told staff in August that the firm expects to list in 2027 unless revenue inflects sharply, while ongoing heavy losses and infrastructure commitments continue to favor private status. Trader consensus reflects the passed September window and absence of any public registration or roadshow. A sudden revenue surge or improved market sentiment could still accelerate plans, though both appear unlikely in the remaining months of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Volume
$302,071Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s market-implied odds of a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027 sit at just 7.5% because the company has shifted its timeline toward 2027 to secure that valuation target. CEO Sam Altman rejected lower-price options presented by advisers after June 2026 confidential S-1 filing, citing volatile public tech markets and SpaceX’s post-IPO share drop as cautionary signals. CFO Sarah Friar told staff in August that the firm expects to list in 2027 unless revenue inflects sharply, while ongoing heavy losses and infrastructure commitments continue to favor private status. Trader consensus reflects the passed September window and absence of any public registration or roadshow. A sudden revenue surge or improved market sentiment could still accelerate plans, though both appear unlikely in the remaining months of 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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