**Internal divisions within Iran's leadership have shaped trader views on coup attempt probabilities.** Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, his successor Mojtaba Khamenei has remained largely absent from public view, prompting hardline factions including the Paydari Front to accuse President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup." These claims center on efforts to elevate the Supreme National Security Council, sideline parliament, and pursue U.S. truce negotiations while diminishing the supreme leader's role. Earlier protests and regime-change pushes in late 2025 and early 2026 were suppressed, with no verified military or security force attempt to seize power. IRGC rumors and economic pressures persist, but the regime has shown resilience through crackdowns and institutional continuity. Scheduled diplomatic developments or further leadership visibility could influence sentiment, though structural barriers like elite cohesion and security apparatus loyalty limit near-term risks of a coordinated coup attempt.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$2,126,958 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
31 décembre
14%
$2,126,958 Vol.
31 décembre
$85,732 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Internal divisions within Iran's leadership have shaped trader views on coup attempt probabilities.** Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, his successor Mojtaba Khamenei has remained largely absent from public view, prompting hardline factions including the Paydari Front to accuse President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup." These claims center on efforts to elevate the Supreme National Security Council, sideline parliament, and pursue U.S. truce negotiations while diminishing the supreme leader's role.
Earlier protests and regime-change pushes in late 2025 and early 2026 were suppressed, with no verified military or security force attempt to seize power. IRGC rumors and economic pressures persist, but the regime has shown resilience through crackdowns and institutional continuity. Scheduled diplomatic developments or further leadership visibility could influence sentiment, though structural barriers like elite cohesion and security apparatus loyalty limit near-term risks of a coordinated coup attempt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,126,958Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Internal divisions within Iran's leadership have shaped trader views on coup attempt probabilities.** Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, his successor Mojtaba Khamenei has remained largely absent from public view, prompting hardline factions including the Paydari Front to accuse President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup." These claims center on efforts to elevate the Supreme National Security Council, sideline parliament, and pursue U.S. truce negotiations while diminishing the supreme leader's role.
Earlier protests and regime-change pushes in late 2025 and early 2026 were suppressed, with no verified military or security force attempt to seize power. IRGC rumors and economic pressures persist, but the regime has shown resilience through crackdowns and institutional continuity. Scheduled diplomatic developments or further leadership visibility could influence sentiment, though structural barriers like elite cohesion and security apparatus loyalty limit near-term risks of a coordinated coup attempt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,126,958Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**Internal divisions within Iran's leadership have shaped trader views on coup attempt probabilities.** Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, his successor Mojtaba Khamenei has remained largely absent from public view, prompting hardline factions including the Paydari Front to accuse President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup." These claims center on efforts to elevate the Supreme National Security Council, sideline parliament, and pursue U.S. truce negotiations while diminishing the supreme leader's role. Earlier protests and regime-change pushes in late 2025 and early 2026 were suppressed, with no verified military or security force attempt to seize power. IRGC rumors and economic pressures persist, but the regime has shown resilience through crackdowns and institutional continuity. Scheduled diplomatic developments or further leadership visibility could influence sentiment, though structural barriers like elite cohesion and security apparatus loyalty limit near-term risks of a coordinated coup attempt.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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