Incumbent Republican Jim Baird holds a commanding position in Indiana's 4th congressional district race, reflecting the area's consistent Republican lean, including an R+15 Partisan Voter Index, and his primary victory securing the nomination with over 60% of the vote. All major forecasters rate the contest Safe or Solid Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Baird's established record since 2019, combined with a substantial fundraising edge over Democratic nominee Drew Cox, has reinforced trader consensus on the outcome. Cox advanced from a fragmented Democratic primary but faces structural barriers in a district where Republicans have won recent general elections by wide margins. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a broad national shift in voter sentiment or late-cycle developments affecting turnout, though none have materialized to alter current assessments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourIN-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
IN-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$12,763 Vol.
$12,763 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Jim Baird (R)
94%
Drew Cox (D)
6%
$12,763 Vol.
$12,763 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Jim Baird (R)
$9,278 Vol.
94%
Drew Cox (D)
$3,485 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jim Baird holds a commanding position in Indiana's 4th congressional district race, reflecting the area's consistent Republican lean, including an R+15 Partisan Voter Index, and his primary victory securing the nomination with over 60% of the vote. All major forecasters rate the contest Safe or Solid Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Baird's established record since 2019, combined with a substantial fundraising edge over Democratic nominee Drew Cox, has reinforced trader consensus on the outcome. Cox advanced from a fragmented Democratic primary but faces structural barriers in a district where Republicans have won recent general elections by wide margins. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a broad national shift in voter sentiment or late-cycle developments affecting turnout, though none have materialized to alter current assessments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$12,763Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jim Baird holds a commanding position in Indiana's 4th congressional district race, reflecting the area's consistent Republican lean, including an R+15 Partisan Voter Index, and his primary victory securing the nomination with over 60% of the vote. All major forecasters rate the contest Safe or Solid Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Baird's established record since 2019, combined with a substantial fundraising edge over Democratic nominee Drew Cox, has reinforced trader consensus on the outcome. Cox advanced from a fragmented Democratic primary but faces structural barriers in a district where Republicans have won recent general elections by wide margins. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a broad national shift in voter sentiment or late-cycle developments affecting turnout, though none have materialized to alter current assessments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$12,763Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jim Baird holds a commanding position in Indiana's 4th congressional district race, reflecting the area's consistent Republican lean, including an R+15 Partisan Voter Index, and his primary victory securing the nomination with over 60% of the vote. All major forecasters rate the contest Safe or Solid Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Baird's established record since 2019, combined with a substantial fundraising edge over Democratic nominee Drew Cox, has reinforced trader consensus on the outcome. Cox advanced from a fragmented Democratic primary but faces structural barriers in a district where Republicans have won recent general elections by wide margins. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a broad national shift in voter sentiment or late-cycle developments affecting turnout, though none have materialized to alter current assessments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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