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icon for La primaire socialiste française sera-t-elle remportée au premier tour ?
Politique·France

La primaire socialiste française sera-t-elle remportée au premier tour ?

icon for La primaire socialiste française sera-t-elle remportée au premier tour ?
Politique·France

La primaire socialiste française sera-t-elle remportée au premier tour ?

Oui

30% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Oui

30% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held. If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.**The French Socialist primary (PS, Place Publique, and GRS) is a closed two-round electronic vote set for 9–10 October and, if needed, 16–17 October 2026.** Five candidates remain after Philippe Brun’s exclusion over misconduct allegations: Olivier Faure, Raphaël Glucksmann, Jérôme Guedj, Emmanuel Maurel, and Ségolène Royal. Reporting and available polling position Glucksmann as the clear frontrunner among party members and sympathizers, yet the fragmented field—spanning party insiders, regional figures, and longer-shot candidates—makes a first-round majority improbable. Recent campaign activity, including scheduled televised debates and regional rallies, has not produced signs of consolidation around one contender. Traders therefore price the probability of any candidate securing outright victory in the first round at 33 percent, with the 67 percent on “No” reflecting the structural likelihood of a runoff in this multi-candidate contest.

The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.

If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held. If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Volume
$645
Date de fin
10 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held. If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.**The French Socialist primary (PS, Place Publique, and GRS) is a closed two-round electronic vote set for 9–10 October and, if needed, 16–17 October 2026.** Five candidates remain after Philippe Brun’s exclusion over misconduct allegations: Olivier Faure, Raphaël Glucksmann, Jérôme Guedj, Emmanuel Maurel, and Ségolène Royal. Reporting and available polling position Glucksmann as the clear frontrunner among party members and sympathizers, yet the fragmented field—spanning party insiders, regional figures, and longer-shot candidates—makes a first-round majority improbable. Recent campaign activity, including scheduled televised debates and regional rallies, has not produced signs of consolidation around one contender. Traders therefore price the probability of any candidate securing outright victory in the first round at 33 percent, with the 67 percent on “No” reflecting the structural likelihood of a runoff in this multi-candidate contest.

The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.

If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held. If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Volume
$645
Date de fin
10 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...

Connexes

icon for Raphaël Glucksmann remportera-t-il le premier tour de la primaire socialiste française ?

Raphaël Glucksmann remportera-t-il le premier tour de la primaire socialiste française ?

90%
Oui
icon for Olivier Faure terminera-t-il deuxième au premier tour de la primaire socialiste française ?

Olivier Faure terminera-t-il deuxième au premier tour de la primaire socialiste française ?

68%
Oui
icon for Raphaël Glucksmann remportera-t-il l'investiture du Parti socialiste pour se présenter à l'élection présidentielle française de 2027 ?

Raphaël Glucksmann remportera-t-il l'investiture du Parti socialiste pour se présenter à l'élection présidentielle française de 2027 ?

74%
Oui

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Questions fréquentes

« La primaire socialiste française sera-t-elle remportée au premier tour ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « La primaire socialiste française sera-t-elle remportée dès le premier tour ? » à 35%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 35¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 35% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« La primaire socialiste française sera-t-elle remportée au premier tour ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Sep 9, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « La primaire socialiste française sera-t-elle remportée au premier tour ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « La primaire socialiste française sera-t-elle remportée au premier tour ? » est « La primaire socialiste française sera-t-elle remportée dès le premier tour ? » à 35%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 35% à ce résultat. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

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