Recent polling and forecasting models show multiple 2026 Senate contests clustered within a few points, with Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, and the Ohio special election emerging as the tightest based on current averages. Open seats in Michigan and Iowa, combined with strong challengers in Texas and Alaska, have narrowed margins compared to historical baselines in those states. Maine and Nebraska remain competitive due to candidate matchups and shifting turnout patterns. Traders appear to weigh recent surveys showing these races as toss-ups or near-toss-ups against structural factors like incumbency and state partisan lean. Upcoming debates, final fundraising reports, and any late national shifts could further consolidate or disperse support among these leading outcomes ahead of November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTexas 14%
Iowa 13.4%
Michigan 10.8%
Alaska 10%
$37,613 Vol.
$37,613 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Texas
14%
Iowa
13%
Michigan
11%
Alaska
10%
Ohio (Special)
9%
Nebraska
8%
Maine
8%
North Carolina
4%
Virginia
3%
Florida (Special)
3%
New Hampshire
3%
Georgia
2%
Minnesota
1%
New Mexico
1%
Montana
1%
Colorado
<1%
Texas 14%
Iowa 13.4%
Michigan 10.8%
Alaska 10%
$37,613 Vol.
$37,613 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Texas
$1,836 Vol.
14%
Iowa
$3,110 Vol.
13%
Michigan
$2,978 Vol.
11%
Alaska
$7,340 Vol.
10%
Ohio (Special)
$8,954 Vol.
9%
Nebraska
$360 Vol.
8%
Maine
$1,309 Vol.
8%
North Carolina
$851 Vol.
4%
Virginia
$5,073 Vol.
3%
Florida (Special)
$253 Vol.
3%
New Hampshire
$670 Vol.
3%
Georgia
$824 Vol.
2%
Minnesota
$1,494 Vol.
1%
New Mexico
$160 Vol.
1%
Montana
$1,344 Vol.
1%
Colorado
$1,057 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling and forecasting models show multiple 2026 Senate contests clustered within a few points, with Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, and the Ohio special election emerging as the tightest based on current averages. Open seats in Michigan and Iowa, combined with strong challengers in Texas and Alaska, have narrowed margins compared to historical baselines in those states. Maine and Nebraska remain competitive due to candidate matchups and shifting turnout patterns. Traders appear to weigh recent surveys showing these races as toss-ups or near-toss-ups against structural factors like incumbency and state partisan lean. Upcoming debates, final fundraising reports, and any late national shifts could further consolidate or disperse support among these leading outcomes ahead of November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volume
$37,613Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling and forecasting models show multiple 2026 Senate contests clustered within a few points, with Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, and the Ohio special election emerging as the tightest based on current averages. Open seats in Michigan and Iowa, combined with strong challengers in Texas and Alaska, have narrowed margins compared to historical baselines in those states. Maine and Nebraska remain competitive due to candidate matchups and shifting turnout patterns. Traders appear to weigh recent surveys showing these races as toss-ups or near-toss-ups against structural factors like incumbency and state partisan lean. Upcoming debates, final fundraising reports, and any late national shifts could further consolidate or disperse support among these leading outcomes ahead of November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$37,613Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling and forecasting models show multiple 2026 Senate contests clustered within a few points, with Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, and the Ohio special election emerging as the tightest based on current averages. Open seats in Michigan and Iowa, combined with strong challengers in Texas and Alaska, have narrowed margins compared to historical baselines in those states. Maine and Nebraska remain competitive due to candidate matchups and shifting turnout patterns. Traders appear to weigh recent surveys showing these races as toss-ups or near-toss-ups against structural factors like incumbency and state partisan lean. Upcoming debates, final fundraising reports, and any late national shifts could further consolidate or disperse support among these leading outcomes ahead of November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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