Moonshot holds an 88.1% implied probability as the third-best AI agent lab by end of September, reflecting trader consensus on its recent model releases and competitive positioning in autonomous agent capabilities. Major labs such as OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and Meta sit at single-digit odds, suggesting market participants view them as likely top-two contenders or further down the ranking based on demonstrated benchmarks and deployment scale. Limited verified announcements in the past month have kept probabilities stable, with attention focused on any late-September updates to agent performance metrics or partnerships that could shift relative standings before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMoonshot 87.9%
Z.ai 5.1%
Meta 4.3%
Mistral 3.5%
$54,098 Vol.
$54,098 Vol.

Moonshot
88%

Z.ai
5%

Meta
4%

Mistral
4%

3%

DeepSeek
3%

SpaceXAI
3%

Anthropic
3%

Alibaba
2%

OpenAI
2%

Amazon
1%

Nvidia
1%

Xiaomi
<1%

Baidu
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

Meituan
<1%
Moonshot 87.9%
Z.ai 5.1%
Meta 4.3%
Mistral 3.5%
$54,098 Vol.
$54,098 Vol.

Moonshot
88%

Z.ai
5%

Meta
4%

Mistral
4%

3%

DeepSeek
3%

SpaceXAI
3%

Anthropic
3%

Alibaba
2%

OpenAI
2%

Amazon
1%

Nvidia
1%

Xiaomi
<1%

Baidu
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

Meituan
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot holds an 88.1% implied probability as the third-best AI agent lab by end of September, reflecting trader consensus on its recent model releases and competitive positioning in autonomous agent capabilities. Major labs such as OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and Meta sit at single-digit odds, suggesting market participants view them as likely top-two contenders or further down the ranking based on demonstrated benchmarks and deployment scale. Limited verified announcements in the past month have kept probabilities stable, with attention focused on any late-September updates to agent performance metrics or partnerships that could shift relative standings before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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