Taiwan’s defense assessments indicate the People’s Liberation Army currently lacks sufficient amphibious lift, sustained logistics, and joint landing capacity for a full-scale invasion, with analysts pointing to readiness shortfalls extending into the early 2030s. Beijing has shifted emphasis toward gray-zone maritime patrols, coast guard operations, and reduced air incursions in 2026, alongside ongoing blockade rehearsals rather than immediate kinetic escalation. Taiwan has responded with higher defense budgets, drone integration, and combat-readiness drills while U.S. arms support and an upcoming Xi-Trump summit provide additional deterrence and diplomatic off-ramps. These factors, combined with the narrow remaining window through 2026, underpin trader consensus that a military clash remains unlikely before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
5% chance
$3,426,055 Vol.
$3,426,055 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
5% chance
$3,426,055 Vol.
$3,426,055 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Taiwan’s defense assessments indicate the People’s Liberation Army currently lacks sufficient amphibious lift, sustained logistics, and joint landing capacity for a full-scale invasion, with analysts pointing to readiness shortfalls extending into the early 2030s. Beijing has shifted emphasis toward gray-zone maritime patrols, coast guard operations, and reduced air incursions in 2026, alongside ongoing blockade rehearsals rather than immediate kinetic escalation. Taiwan has responded with higher defense budgets, drone integration, and combat-readiness drills while U.S. arms support and an upcoming Xi-Trump summit provide additional deterrence and diplomatic off-ramps. These factors, combined with the narrow remaining window through 2026, underpin trader consensus that a military clash remains unlikely before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Volume
$3,426,055Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Taiwan’s defense assessments indicate the People’s Liberation Army currently lacks sufficient amphibious lift, sustained logistics, and joint landing capacity for a full-scale invasion, with analysts pointing to readiness shortfalls extending into the early 2030s. Beijing has shifted emphasis toward gray-zone maritime patrols, coast guard operations, and reduced air incursions in 2026, alongside ongoing blockade rehearsals rather than immediate kinetic escalation. Taiwan has responded with higher defense budgets, drone integration, and combat-readiness drills while U.S. arms support and an upcoming Xi-Trump summit provide additional deterrence and diplomatic off-ramps. These factors, combined with the narrow remaining window through 2026, underpin trader consensus that a military clash remains unlikely before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,426,055Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Taiwan’s defense assessments indicate the People’s Liberation Army currently lacks sufficient amphibious lift, sustained logistics, and joint landing capacity for a full-scale invasion, with analysts pointing to readiness shortfalls extending into the early 2030s. Beijing has shifted emphasis toward gray-zone maritime patrols, coast guard operations, and reduced air incursions in 2026, alongside ongoing blockade rehearsals rather than immediate kinetic escalation. Taiwan has responded with higher defense budgets, drone integration, and combat-readiness drills while U.S. arms support and an upcoming Xi-Trump summit provide additional deterrence and diplomatic off-ramps. These factors, combined with the narrow remaining window through 2026, underpin trader consensus that a military clash remains unlikely before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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