The Democratic Party holds a commanding position in the CA-04 House race because redistricting under Proposition 50 produced a district with a clear Democratic lean, rated Solid or Safe Democratic by forecasters including Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Longtime incumbent Mike Thompson advanced from the June 2 top-two primary alongside fellow Democrat Eric Jones, while Republican candidates failed to reach the November 3 general election ballot. Thompson's consistent prior margins above 66 percent, strong fundraising, and institutional endorsements further reinforce trader consensus on the outcome. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as both Democratic nominees withdrawing or facing disqualifying developments before Election Day, neither of which has materialized in available reporting.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$13,721 Vol.
$13,721 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
95%
Parti républicain
4%
$13,721 Vol.
$13,721 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$5,915 Vol.
95%
Parti républicain
$7,806 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds a commanding position in the CA-04 House race because redistricting under Proposition 50 produced a district with a clear Democratic lean, rated Solid or Safe Democratic by forecasters including Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Longtime incumbent Mike Thompson advanced from the June 2 top-two primary alongside fellow Democrat Eric Jones, while Republican candidates failed to reach the November 3 general election ballot. Thompson's consistent prior margins above 66 percent, strong fundraising, and institutional endorsements further reinforce trader consensus on the outcome. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as both Democratic nominees withdrawing or facing disqualifying developments before Election Day, neither of which has materialized in available reporting.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$13,721Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds a commanding position in the CA-04 House race because redistricting under Proposition 50 produced a district with a clear Democratic lean, rated Solid or Safe Democratic by forecasters including Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Longtime incumbent Mike Thompson advanced from the June 2 top-two primary alongside fellow Democrat Eric Jones, while Republican candidates failed to reach the November 3 general election ballot. Thompson's consistent prior margins above 66 percent, strong fundraising, and institutional endorsements further reinforce trader consensus on the outcome. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as both Democratic nominees withdrawing or facing disqualifying developments before Election Day, neither of which has materialized in available reporting.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$13,721Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic Party holds a commanding position in the CA-04 House race because redistricting under Proposition 50 produced a district with a clear Democratic lean, rated Solid or Safe Democratic by forecasters including Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Longtime incumbent Mike Thompson advanced from the June 2 top-two primary alongside fellow Democrat Eric Jones, while Republican candidates failed to reach the November 3 general election ballot. Thompson's consistent prior margins above 66 percent, strong fundraising, and institutional endorsements further reinforce trader consensus on the outcome. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as both Democratic nominees withdrawing or facing disqualifying developments before Election Day, neither of which has materialized in available reporting.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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