Traders assign the highest implied probability to "Other" at 62% for the leading AI model by September 28, reflecting broad uncertainty and the absence of any single system dominating recent benchmarks or official releases. Claude variants from Anthropic, led by claude-fable-5.1-max at 34.5%, benefit from demonstrated large language model capabilities and competitive positioning against rivals like GPT-series or Gemini models. With resolution only days away, sentiment hinges on last-minute capability updates, third-party evaluations, or announcements that could alter the field, as product timelines in artificial intelligence frequently shift.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAutre 62%
claude-fable-5.1-max 35%
claude-opus-5-high <1%
claude-opus-5-max <1%
Autre
62%
claude-fable-5.1-max
35%
claude-opus-5-high
1%
claude-opus-5-max
1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
1%
Autre 62%
claude-fable-5.1-max 35%
claude-opus-5-high <1%
claude-opus-5-max <1%
Autre
62%
claude-fable-5.1-max
35%
claude-opus-5-high
1%
claude-opus-5-max
1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ET
Résolveur
0x69c47de9d...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Résolveur
0x69c47de9d...Traders assign the highest implied probability to "Other" at 62% for the leading AI model by September 28, reflecting broad uncertainty and the absence of any single system dominating recent benchmarks or official releases. Claude variants from Anthropic, led by claude-fable-5.1-max at 34.5%, benefit from demonstrated large language model capabilities and competitive positioning against rivals like GPT-series or Gemini models. With resolution only days away, sentiment hinges on last-minute capability updates, third-party evaluations, or announcements that could alter the field, as product timelines in artificial intelligence frequently shift.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour


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