Recent polls from mid-to-late September place Manuel Enrique Vera Paredes ahead of the fragmented field for the October 4 Arequipa mayoral election, reflecting his profile as incumbent district mayor of Cerro Colorado and consistent visibility in candidate debates organized by professional colleges. Multiple surveys show him in the low-to-mid 20s while Renzo Alonso Salas Herrera, Ricardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar Llosa, Alfredo Álvarez Díaz, and others trail in the teens or single digits, consistent with trader pricing that treats the contest as Vera’s to lose. A crowded ballot of roughly 20 registered candidates, recent disqualifications for incomplete filings, and the absence of a dominant regional movement sustain uncertainty and limit any single challenger’s momentum in the final weeks.