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Geopolitics·Ukraine Map

Will Russia capture Svitle by...?

icon for Will Russia capture Svitle by...?
Geopolitics·Ukraine Map

Will Russia capture Svitle by...?

$65,402 Vol.

Oct 31, 2026
Polymarket

$65,402 Vol.

Polymarket

October 31

$33,395 Vol.

16%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.405560° N, 37.119791° E in Svitle, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location in Svitle: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle1.png Svitle Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle2.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/h4wD9Vc9XvfYZ3417 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted incremental advances in the Pokrovsk sector of Donetsk Oblast, with the Defense Ministry claiming control of Svitle and nearby Nova Sich in late July 2026, though ISW assessments at the time recorded only partial progress to within a few kilometers amid Ukrainian defensive positions and drone strikes. Trader pricing reflects the contested nature of consolidation in this gray-zone frontline area, where Russian pressure continues alongside Ukrainian counteroperations such as Operation Vivaldi in September, which recaptured ground north of Lyman and disrupted nearby logistics. Broader factors include sustained Russian artillery and glide-bomb use offset by Ukrainian strikes on supply routes, slow overall territorial gains, and the market's reliance on verified ISW map shading for resolution by target dates. No major new developments have altered the immediate trajectory since mid-September.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.405560° N, 37.119791° E in Svitle, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location in Svitle: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle1.png

Svitle Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle2.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/h4wD9Vc9XvfYZ3417

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.405560° N, 37.119791° E in Svitle, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location in Svitle: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle1.png Svitle Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle2.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/h4wD9Vc9XvfYZ3417 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$65,402
End Date
Nov 1, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 8:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.405560° N, 37.119791° E in Svitle, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location in Svitle: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle1.png Svitle Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle2.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/h4wD9Vc9XvfYZ3417 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted incremental advances in the Pokrovsk sector of Donetsk Oblast, with the Defense Ministry claiming control of Svitle and nearby Nova Sich in late July 2026, though ISW assessments at the time recorded only partial progress to within a few kilometers amid Ukrainian defensive positions and drone strikes. Trader pricing reflects the contested nature of consolidation in this gray-zone frontline area, where Russian pressure continues alongside Ukrainian counteroperations such as Operation Vivaldi in September, which recaptured ground north of Lyman and disrupted nearby logistics. Broader factors include sustained Russian artillery and glide-bomb use offset by Ukrainian strikes on supply routes, slow overall territorial gains, and the market's reliance on verified ISW map shading for resolution by target dates. No major new developments have altered the immediate trajectory since mid-September.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.405560° N, 37.119791° E in Svitle, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location in Svitle: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle1.png

Svitle Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle2.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/h4wD9Vc9XvfYZ3417

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.405560° N, 37.119791° E in Svitle, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location in Svitle: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle1.png Svitle Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Svitle2.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/h4wD9Vc9XvfYZ3417 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$65,402
End Date
Nov 1, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 8:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Russia capture Svitle by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "October 31" at 16%, followed by "August 31" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 16¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Russia capture Svitle by...?" has generated $65.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Russia capture Svitle by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Russia capture Svitle by...?" is "October 31" at 16%, meaning the market assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "August 31" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Russia capture Svitle by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.