The ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, now the second-largest Ebola epidemic on record with over 6,700 confirmed cases and 3,200 deaths as of early September 2026, anchors trader sentiment around DRC as a near-certainty for 2026 cases. Rapid early growth across Ituri and neighboring provinces, conflict zones hindering response, and limited vaccine efficacy against this strain have kept the WHO PHEIC active, while imported cases reached Uganda (20 total before its outbreak ended) and one in France. Neighboring countries face elevated risk from cross-border movement, though containment efforts and the 42-day monitoring periods in affected areas limit further spread so far. Upcoming factors include continued case tracking through year-end and any new international imports.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
$38,411 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
South Sudan
65%
Rwanda
22%
Burundi
53%
United States
20%
Canada
23%
Kenya
24%
India
40%
Republic of the Congo
22%
Nigeria
50%
Ethiopia
44%
Somalia
37%
China
14%
$38,411 Vol.
South Sudan
$4,122 Vol.
65%
Rwanda
$2,149 Vol.
22%
Burundi
$202 Vol.
53%
United States
$10,507 Vol.
20%
Canada
$2,307 Vol.
23%
Kenya
$235 Vol.
24%
India
$737 Vol.
40%
Republic of the Congo
$12,400 Vol.
22%
Nigeria
$25 Vol.
50%
Ethiopia
$107 Vol.
44%
Somalia
$129 Vol.
37%
China
$3,537 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.The ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, now the second-largest Ebola epidemic on record with over 6,700 confirmed cases and 3,200 deaths as of early September 2026, anchors trader sentiment around DRC as a near-certainty for 2026 cases. Rapid early growth across Ituri and neighboring provinces, conflict zones hindering response, and limited vaccine efficacy against this strain have kept the WHO PHEIC active, while imported cases reached Uganda (20 total before its outbreak ended) and one in France. Neighboring countries face elevated risk from cross-border movement, though containment efforts and the 42-day monitoring periods in affected areas limit further spread so far. Upcoming factors include continued case tracking through year-end and any new international imports.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market Opened: May 22, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
Volume
$38,411End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.The ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, now the second-largest Ebola epidemic on record with over 6,700 confirmed cases and 3,200 deaths as of early September 2026, anchors trader sentiment around DRC as a near-certainty for 2026 cases. Rapid early growth across Ituri and neighboring provinces, conflict zones hindering response, and limited vaccine efficacy against this strain have kept the WHO PHEIC active, while imported cases reached Uganda (20 total before its outbreak ended) and one in France. Neighboring countries face elevated risk from cross-border movement, though containment efforts and the 42-day monitoring periods in affected areas limit further spread so far. Upcoming factors include continued case tracking through year-end and any new international imports.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$38,411End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, now the second-largest Ebola epidemic on record with over 6,700 confirmed cases and 3,200 deaths as of early September 2026, anchors trader sentiment around DRC as a near-certainty for 2026 cases. Rapid early growth across Ituri and neighboring provinces, conflict zones hindering response, and limited vaccine efficacy against this strain have kept the WHO PHEIC active, while imported cases reached Uganda (20 total before its outbreak ended) and one in France. Neighboring countries face elevated risk from cross-border movement, though containment efforts and the 42-day monitoring periods in affected areas limit further spread so far. Upcoming factors include continued case tracking through year-end and any new international imports.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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