The U.S. decision on July 1, 2026, not to confirm a 16-year extension of the USMCA under its current terms has anchored trader expectations against renewal this year. President Trump’s administration cited persistent U.S. goods trade deficits with Mexico and Canada, automotive rules of origin, and concerns over third-country inputs as reasons for rejecting an automatic renewal, triggering the agreement’s annual review process instead. Mexico and Canada both signaled support for extension, yet bilateral talks with Mexico have proceeded without resolution on core issues while Canada-U.S. negotiations remain stalled. The pact stays in force through 2036 absent withdrawal or later unanimous confirmation, but the missed July 1 deadline and ongoing demands for revisions have produced an 88.5% implied probability that no extension occurs in 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated12% chance
$10,716 Vol.
$10,716 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
12% chance
$10,716 Vol.
$10,716 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The U.S. decision on July 1, 2026, not to confirm a 16-year extension of the USMCA under its current terms has anchored trader expectations against renewal this year. President Trump’s administration cited persistent U.S. goods trade deficits with Mexico and Canada, automotive rules of origin, and concerns over third-country inputs as reasons for rejecting an automatic renewal, triggering the agreement’s annual review process instead. Mexico and Canada both signaled support for extension, yet bilateral talks with Mexico have proceeded without resolution on core issues while Canada-U.S. negotiations remain stalled. The pact stays in force through 2036 absent withdrawal or later unanimous confirmation, but the missed July 1 deadline and ongoing demands for revisions have produced an 88.5% implied probability that no extension occurs in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$10,716End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The U.S. decision on July 1, 2026, not to confirm a 16-year extension of the USMCA under its current terms has anchored trader expectations against renewal this year. President Trump’s administration cited persistent U.S. goods trade deficits with Mexico and Canada, automotive rules of origin, and concerns over third-country inputs as reasons for rejecting an automatic renewal, triggering the agreement’s annual review process instead. Mexico and Canada both signaled support for extension, yet bilateral talks with Mexico have proceeded without resolution on core issues while Canada-U.S. negotiations remain stalled. The pact stays in force through 2036 absent withdrawal or later unanimous confirmation, but the missed July 1 deadline and ongoing demands for revisions have produced an 88.5% implied probability that no extension occurs in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10,716End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. decision on July 1, 2026, not to confirm a 16-year extension of the USMCA under its current terms has anchored trader expectations against renewal this year. President Trump’s administration cited persistent U.S. goods trade deficits with Mexico and Canada, automotive rules of origin, and concerns over third-country inputs as reasons for rejecting an automatic renewal, triggering the agreement’s annual review process instead. Mexico and Canada both signaled support for extension, yet bilateral talks with Mexico have proceeded without resolution on core issues while Canada-U.S. negotiations remain stalled. The pact stays in force through 2036 absent withdrawal or later unanimous confirmation, but the missed July 1 deadline and ongoing demands for revisions have produced an 88.5% implied probability that no extension occurs in 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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