Recent model releases have intensified competition on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard, where crowdsourced Elo ratings from hundreds of thousands of votes on iterative frontend and agentic coding tasks determine lab rankings. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra currently leads, followed closely by Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, leaving third place contested among cost-effective Chinese labs such as Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 variants and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 series, which deliver strong multi-step reasoning at lower token prices. Meta’s Muse Spark updates and open-weight contenders further fragment the field. With roughly seven weeks until the October resolution, traders price in high uncertainty around further fine-tunes, benchmark volatility, and potential new launches that could reorder the Pareto frontier before the cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlibaba 32%
Moonshot 30%
OpenAI 6.3%
Anthropic 5.3%
$36,596 Vol.
$36,596 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Alibaba
32%
Moonshot
30%
OpenAI
6%
Anthropic
5%
SpaceXAI
5%
3%
Meta
3%
Z.ai
2%
Mistral
2%
Thinky
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Tencent
1%
ByteDance
1%
MiniMax
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Poolside
<1%
Alibaba 32%
Moonshot 30%
OpenAI 6.3%
Anthropic 5.3%
$36,596 Vol.
$36,596 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Alibaba
$17,438 Vol.
32%
Moonshot
$11,111 Vol.
30%
OpenAI
$884 Vol.
6%
Anthropic
$604 Vol.
5%
SpaceXAI
$659 Vol.
5%
$482 Vol.
3%
Meta
$496 Vol.
3%
Z.ai
$656 Vol.
2%
Mistral
$581 Vol.
2%
Thinky
$586 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$580 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$539 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$613 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$573 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$302 Vol.
<1%
Poolside
$492 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have intensified competition on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard, where crowdsourced Elo ratings from hundreds of thousands of votes on iterative frontend and agentic coding tasks determine lab rankings. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra currently leads, followed closely by Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, leaving third place contested among cost-effective Chinese labs such as Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 variants and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 series, which deliver strong multi-step reasoning at lower token prices. Meta’s Muse Spark updates and open-weight contenders further fragment the field. With roughly seven weeks until the October resolution, traders price in high uncertainty around further fine-tunes, benchmark volatility, and potential new launches that could reorder the Pareto frontier before the cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$36,596End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have intensified competition on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard, where crowdsourced Elo ratings from hundreds of thousands of votes on iterative frontend and agentic coding tasks determine lab rankings. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra currently leads, followed closely by Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, leaving third place contested among cost-effective Chinese labs such as Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 variants and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 series, which deliver strong multi-step reasoning at lower token prices. Meta’s Muse Spark updates and open-weight contenders further fragment the field. With roughly seven weeks until the October resolution, traders price in high uncertainty around further fine-tunes, benchmark volatility, and potential new launches that could reorder the Pareto frontier before the cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$36,596End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases have intensified competition on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard, where crowdsourced Elo ratings from hundreds of thousands of votes on iterative frontend and agentic coding tasks determine lab rankings. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra currently leads, followed closely by Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, leaving third place contested among cost-effective Chinese labs such as Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 variants and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 series, which deliver strong multi-step reasoning at lower token prices. Meta’s Muse Spark updates and open-weight contenders further fragment the field. With roughly seven weeks until the October resolution, traders price in high uncertainty around further fine-tunes, benchmark volatility, and potential new launches that could reorder the Pareto frontier before the cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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