Incumbent Republican Chris Smith maintains a commanding lead in the NJ-04 House race due to the district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its Solid R rating from the Cook Political Report and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Smith, seeking a 24th term after winning 67.4% in 2024, faced no primary opposition and benefits from substantial fundraising advantages over Democratic nominee Rachel Peace, who secured her party’s nod in June with limited resources. The upper Jersey Shore district, encompassing parts of Monmouth and Ocean counties, favors the longtime representative on structural factors such as voter registration and past electoral performance. Late developments including major scandals, health issues, or national political shifts could still narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-04 House Election Winner
NJ-04 House Election Winner
$19,141 Vol.
$19,141 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Chris Smith (R)
96%
Rachel Peace (D)
5%
$19,141 Vol.
$19,141 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Chris Smith (R)
$6,168 Vol.
96%
Rachel Peace (D)
$12,973 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Chris Smith maintains a commanding lead in the NJ-04 House race due to the district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its Solid R rating from the Cook Political Report and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Smith, seeking a 24th term after winning 67.4% in 2024, faced no primary opposition and benefits from substantial fundraising advantages over Democratic nominee Rachel Peace, who secured her party’s nod in June with limited resources. The upper Jersey Shore district, encompassing parts of Monmouth and Ocean counties, favors the longtime representative on structural factors such as voter registration and past electoral performance. Late developments including major scandals, health issues, or national political shifts could still narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$19,141End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Chris Smith maintains a commanding lead in the NJ-04 House race due to the district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its Solid R rating from the Cook Political Report and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Smith, seeking a 24th term after winning 67.4% in 2024, faced no primary opposition and benefits from substantial fundraising advantages over Democratic nominee Rachel Peace, who secured her party’s nod in June with limited resources. The upper Jersey Shore district, encompassing parts of Monmouth and Ocean counties, favors the longtime representative on structural factors such as voter registration and past electoral performance. Late developments including major scandals, health issues, or national political shifts could still narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$19,141End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Chris Smith maintains a commanding lead in the NJ-04 House race due to the district’s strong Republican lean, reflected in its Solid R rating from the Cook Political Report and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Smith, seeking a 24th term after winning 67.4% in 2024, faced no primary opposition and benefits from substantial fundraising advantages over Democratic nominee Rachel Peace, who secured her party’s nod in June with limited resources. The upper Jersey Shore district, encompassing parts of Monmouth and Ocean counties, favors the longtime representative on structural factors such as voter registration and past electoral performance. Late developments including major scandals, health issues, or national political shifts could still narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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