Lebanon’s parliament renewed confidence in Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s government on September 16–17, 2026, with 68 votes in favor, 12 against, and two abstentions, even as Hezbollah lawmakers withdrew without opposing the motion outright and Amal Movement MPs backed the outcome. Salam continues to lead diplomatic efforts ahead of the UN General Assembly, including planned meetings with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and IMF officials, while advancing talks on Israeli withdrawal, state control over weapons, economic reforms, and Syrian refugee returns. These developments, occurring amid ongoing border tensions and reconstruction priorities, align with the 79.5% trader-implied probability that Salam will remain in office through the end of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated12% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
12% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nawaf Salam ceases to be Prime Minister of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Salam's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nawaf Salam and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lebanon’s parliament renewed confidence in Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s government on September 16–17, 2026, with 68 votes in favor, 12 against, and two abstentions, even as Hezbollah lawmakers withdrew without opposing the motion outright and Amal Movement MPs backed the outcome. Salam continues to lead diplomatic efforts ahead of the UN General Assembly, including planned meetings with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and IMF officials, while advancing talks on Israeli withdrawal, state control over weapons, economic reforms, and Syrian refugee returns. These developments, occurring amid ongoing border tensions and reconstruction priorities, align with the 79.5% trader-implied probability that Salam will remain in office through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nawaf Salam ceases to be Prime Minister of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Salam's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nawaf Salam and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Salam's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nawaf Salam and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 20, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$1,247End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nawaf Salam ceases to be Prime Minister of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Salam's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nawaf Salam and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lebanon’s parliament renewed confidence in Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s government on September 16–17, 2026, with 68 votes in favor, 12 against, and two abstentions, even as Hezbollah lawmakers withdrew without opposing the motion outright and Amal Movement MPs backed the outcome. Salam continues to lead diplomatic efforts ahead of the UN General Assembly, including planned meetings with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and IMF officials, while advancing talks on Israeli withdrawal, state control over weapons, economic reforms, and Syrian refugee returns. These developments, occurring amid ongoing border tensions and reconstruction priorities, align with the 79.5% trader-implied probability that Salam will remain in office through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nawaf Salam ceases to be Prime Minister of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Salam's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nawaf Salam and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Salam's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Nawaf Salam and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,247End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Lebanon’s parliament renewed confidence in Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s government on September 16–17, 2026, with 68 votes in favor, 12 against, and two abstentions, even as Hezbollah lawmakers withdrew without opposing the motion outright and Amal Movement MPs backed the outcome. Salam continues to lead diplomatic efforts ahead of the UN General Assembly, including planned meetings with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and IMF officials, while advancing talks on Israeli withdrawal, state control over weapons, economic reforms, and Syrian refugee returns. These developments, occurring amid ongoing border tensions and reconstruction priorities, align with the 79.5% trader-implied probability that Salam will remain in office through the end of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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