Ongoing hostilities with Hezbollah, Israel's occupation of a southern buffer zone, and the absence of Lebanese government control over non-state armed groups continue to block any path to formal diplomatic normalization. A June 2026 U.S.-brokered framework agreement established a sequenced process for limited Israeli withdrawals tied to verified Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army deployment in pilot zones, yet implementation remains incremental and contested. Hezbollah has rejected the deal outright, while recent Israeli operations against militant infrastructure through September 2026 underscore persistent security frictions. Scheduled follow-up talks in Rome in October offer limited scope for rapid progress toward treaty-level relations within the remaining months before 2027. Full normalization would require verifiable demilitarization, border demarcation, and political consensus in Beirut that current conditions and timelines render improbable.