**Current market-implied odds heavily favor the price of the premium Mega Dragonite ex variants (notably the Ascended Heroes #290 Special Illustration Rare and #295 Mega Hyper Rare) closing under $668.24 on September 30, with the "Under" at 95.1%.** This near-certain trader consensus stems from steady post-launch depreciation in the eight months since the January 2026 release of the Ascended Heroes set. Raw near-mint copies of the top chase versions now trade in the $200–$570 range across major platforms, with 30- and 90-day trends showing consistent declines of 10–37% amid rising supply, reduced hype, and broader softening in Pokémon TCG secondary markets. No major catalysts—such as new product waves, tournament dominance, or viral collector momentum—have emerged in recent weeks to reverse the trajectory. With only ten days until resolution and prices already well below the strike, a realistic upset would require an unexpected surge in demand, perhaps from a surprise announcement or grading population shift, though historical patterns for similar chase cards make such a rebound unlikely in this narrow window.