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icon for VMA Video of the Year 2026

VMA Video of the Year 2026

icon for VMA Video of the Year 2026

VMA Video of the Year 2026

The Fate of Ophelia (Taylor Swift) 56%

Confessions II – The Film (Madonna) 24%

Hate That I Made You Love Me (Ariana Grande) 22%

Tears (Sabrina Carpenter) 8%

Polymarket
NEW

The Fate of Ophelia (Taylor Swift) 56%

Confessions II – The Film (Madonna) 24%

Hate That I Made You Love Me (Ariana Grande) 22%

Tears (Sabrina Carpenter) 8%

Polymarket
NEW

The Fate of Ophelia (Taylor Swift)

$2,368 Vol.

56%

Confessions II – The Film (Madonna)

$585 Vol.

24%

Hate That I Made You Love Me (Ariana Grande)

$30 Vol.

22%

Tears (Sabrina Carpenter)

$56 Vol.

8%

I Just Might (Bruno Mars)

$79 Vol.

8%

Storm (Gener8ion featuring Yung Lean)

$4 Vol.

38%

The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year. If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Taylor Swift’s “The Fate of Ophelia” holds the strongest trader consensus for 2026 VMA Video of the Year at 55.5% implied probability, driven by her record-setting VMA history, nine total nominations, and the visual’s alignment with her dominant “Life of a Showgirl” campaign. Madonna’s “Confessions II – The Film” sits at 24% amid her leading 13 nominations overall and the precedent for longer-form entries, yet faces a longer gap since her last win in the category. The remaining nominees— Ariana Grande, Bruno Mars, Gener8ion featuring Yung Lean, and Sabrina Carpenter—cluster lower, reflecting solid but less decisive chart and critical momentum. With the Sept. 27 ceremony days away, final voter sentiment and any late social buzz could still shift positioning in this closely watched field.

The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year.

If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year. If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,123
End Date
Sep 28, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 5:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year. If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Taylor Swift’s “The Fate of Ophelia” holds the strongest trader consensus for 2026 VMA Video of the Year at 55.5% implied probability, driven by her record-setting VMA history, nine total nominations, and the visual’s alignment with her dominant “Life of a Showgirl” campaign. Madonna’s “Confessions II – The Film” sits at 24% amid her leading 13 nominations overall and the precedent for longer-form entries, yet faces a longer gap since her last win in the category. The remaining nominees— Ariana Grande, Bruno Mars, Gener8ion featuring Yung Lean, and Sabrina Carpenter—cluster lower, reflecting solid but less decisive chart and critical momentum. With the Sept. 27 ceremony days away, final voter sentiment and any late social buzz could still shift positioning in this closely watched field.

The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year.

If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year. If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,123
End Date
Sep 28, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 5:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"VMA Video of the Year 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "The Fate of Ophelia (Taylor Swift)" at 56%, followed by "Storm (Gener8ion featuring Yung Lean)" at 38%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"VMA Video of the Year 2026" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 18, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "VMA Video of the Year 2026," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "VMA Video of the Year 2026" is "The Fate of Ophelia (Taylor Swift)" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Storm (Gener8ion featuring Yung Lean)" at 38%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "VMA Video of the Year 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.