**Recent model consensus and a passing cold front are anchoring trader expectations for an overnight low in the low 70s on September 18, 2026, in New York City.** Forecasts from sources including the National Weather Service, globalmeteo, and others show the minimum temperature during the Sept 18 calendar day (spanning the night of the 17th–18th and into the following evening) likely falling between roughly 69–72°F. A cold front crossing the region on the 17th is shifting winds from southwesterly to northerly, advecting cooler, drier air with falling dewpoints into the 50s. This reduces humidity and enhances radiational cooling under partly to mostly cloudy skies, supporting the market’s heaviest volume on the 70–71°F and 72–73°F bins (combined ~80% implied probability). Slightly lower outcomes (68–69°F at 16%) remain possible if clearing skies or stronger northerly flow develop overnight, while warmer readings above 74°F carry minimal odds given the post-frontal regime. Historical September averages (low near 61°F) provide context, but the current short-term pattern favors the upper end of the typical range. Traders are closely watching the next NWS forecast updates and model runs for any shifts in the overnight minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on September 18?
Lowest temperature in NYC on September 18?
70-71°F 45%
72-73°F 32%
68-69°F 17%
66-67°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
61°F or below
2%
62-63°F
2%
64-65°F
3%
66-67°F
7%
68-69°F
17%
70-71°F
45%
72-73°F
32%
74-75°F
3%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
1%
80°F or higher
1%
70-71°F 45%
72-73°F 32%
68-69°F 17%
66-67°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
61°F or below
$0 Vol.
2%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
2%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
3%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
7%
68-69°F
$390 Vol.
17%
70-71°F
$621 Vol.
45%
72-73°F
$932 Vol.
32%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
3%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
2%
78-79°F
$311 Vol.
1%
80°F or higher
$311 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus and a passing cold front are anchoring trader expectations for an overnight low in the low 70s on September 18, 2026, in New York City.**
Forecasts from sources including the National Weather Service, globalmeteo, and others show the minimum temperature during the Sept 18 calendar day (spanning the night of the 17th–18th and into the following evening) likely falling between roughly 69–72°F. A cold front crossing the region on the 17th is shifting winds from southwesterly to northerly, advecting cooler, drier air with falling dewpoints into the 50s. This reduces humidity and enhances radiational cooling under partly to mostly cloudy skies, supporting the market’s heaviest volume on the 70–71°F and 72–73°F bins (combined ~80% implied probability).
Slightly lower outcomes (68–69°F at 16%) remain possible if clearing skies or stronger northerly flow develop overnight, while warmer readings above 74°F carry minimal odds given the post-frontal regime. Historical September averages (low near 61°F) provide context, but the current short-term pattern favors the upper end of the typical range. Traders are closely watching the next NWS forecast updates and model runs for any shifts in the overnight minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,565End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus and a passing cold front are anchoring trader expectations for an overnight low in the low 70s on September 18, 2026, in New York City.**
Forecasts from sources including the National Weather Service, globalmeteo, and others show the minimum temperature during the Sept 18 calendar day (spanning the night of the 17th–18th and into the following evening) likely falling between roughly 69–72°F. A cold front crossing the region on the 17th is shifting winds from southwesterly to northerly, advecting cooler, drier air with falling dewpoints into the 50s. This reduces humidity and enhances radiational cooling under partly to mostly cloudy skies, supporting the market’s heaviest volume on the 70–71°F and 72–73°F bins (combined ~80% implied probability).
Slightly lower outcomes (68–69°F at 16%) remain possible if clearing skies or stronger northerly flow develop overnight, while warmer readings above 74°F carry minimal odds given the post-frontal regime. Historical September averages (low near 61°F) provide context, but the current short-term pattern favors the upper end of the typical range. Traders are closely watching the next NWS forecast updates and model runs for any shifts in the overnight minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,565End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent model consensus and a passing cold front are anchoring trader expectations for an overnight low in the low 70s on September 18, 2026, in New York City.** Forecasts from sources including the National Weather Service, globalmeteo, and others show the minimum temperature during the Sept 18 calendar day (spanning the night of the 17th–18th and into the following evening) likely falling between roughly 69–72°F. A cold front crossing the region on the 17th is shifting winds from southwesterly to northerly, advecting cooler, drier air with falling dewpoints into the 50s. This reduces humidity and enhances radiational cooling under partly to mostly cloudy skies, supporting the market’s heaviest volume on the 70–71°F and 72–73°F bins (combined ~80% implied probability). Slightly lower outcomes (68–69°F at 16%) remain possible if clearing skies or stronger northerly flow develop overnight, while warmer readings above 74°F carry minimal odds given the post-frontal regime. Historical September averages (low near 61°F) provide context, but the current short-term pattern favors the upper end of the typical range. Traders are closely watching the next NWS forecast updates and model runs for any shifts in the overnight minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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