**Forecast models indicate Munich's minimum temperature on September 21, 2026, will likely fall between 7–9°C overnight, producing the tight market split between 8°C and 7°C-or-below outcomes.** Official guidance and ensemble runs from sources such as GFS and DWD show radiative cooling under partly cloudy to clearing skies, light northwest winds, and dew points near 6–8°C, conditions that support a minimum close to the historical average low of 9.4°C but with model spread allowing for either modest additional cooling or slight moderation from residual cloud cover. Current surface observations and short-range updates place the overnight low in this narrow band, where small differences in boundary-layer mixing or timing of any clearing can shift the exact reading by 1°C. Traders are therefore pricing the two leading contracts nearly evenly while assigning negligible probability to outcomes above 8°C, reflecting both the consensus central tendency and the remaining uncertainty in final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Munich on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Munich on September 21?
7°C or below 100.0%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$333 Vol.
$333 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
7°C or below
Yes
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C or higher
No
7°C or below 100.0%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$333 Vol.
$333 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
7°C or below
$35 Vol.
Yes
8°C
$120 Vol.
No
9°C
$30 Vol.
No
10°C
$30 Vol.
No
11°C
$18 Vol.
No
12°C
$15 Vol.
No
13°C
$20 Vol.
No
14°C
$15 Vol.
No
15°C
$20 Vol.
No
16°C
$15 Vol.
No
17°C or higher
$15 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate Munich's minimum temperature on September 21, 2026, will likely fall between 7–9°C overnight, producing the tight market split between 8°C and 7°C-or-below outcomes.** Official guidance and ensemble runs from sources such as GFS and DWD show radiative cooling under partly cloudy to clearing skies, light northwest winds, and dew points near 6–8°C, conditions that support a minimum close to the historical average low of 9.4°C but with model spread allowing for either modest additional cooling or slight moderation from residual cloud cover. Current surface observations and short-range updates place the overnight low in this narrow band, where small differences in boundary-layer mixing or timing of any clearing can shift the exact reading by 1°C. Traders are therefore pricing the two leading contracts nearly evenly while assigning negligible probability to outcomes above 8°C, reflecting both the consensus central tendency and the remaining uncertainty in final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$333End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate Munich's minimum temperature on September 21, 2026, will likely fall between 7–9°C overnight, producing the tight market split between 8°C and 7°C-or-below outcomes.** Official guidance and ensemble runs from sources such as GFS and DWD show radiative cooling under partly cloudy to clearing skies, light northwest winds, and dew points near 6–8°C, conditions that support a minimum close to the historical average low of 9.4°C but with model spread allowing for either modest additional cooling or slight moderation from residual cloud cover. Current surface observations and short-range updates place the overnight low in this narrow band, where small differences in boundary-layer mixing or timing of any clearing can shift the exact reading by 1°C. Traders are therefore pricing the two leading contracts nearly evenly while assigning negligible probability to outcomes above 8°C, reflecting both the consensus central tendency and the remaining uncertainty in final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$333End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
**Forecast models indicate Munich's minimum temperature on September 21, 2026, will likely fall between 7–9°C overnight, producing the tight market split between 8°C and 7°C-or-below outcomes.** Official guidance and ensemble runs from sources such as GFS and DWD show radiative cooling under partly cloudy to clearing skies, light northwest winds, and dew points near 6–8°C, conditions that support a minimum close to the historical average low of 9.4°C but with model spread allowing for either modest additional cooling or slight moderation from residual cloud cover. Current surface observations and short-range updates place the overnight low in this narrow band, where small differences in boundary-layer mixing or timing of any clearing can shift the exact reading by 1°C. Traders are therefore pricing the two leading contracts nearly evenly while assigning negligible probability to outcomes above 8°C, reflecting both the consensus central tendency and the remaining uncertainty in final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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