Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a minimum air temperature of 27°C on September 18, 2026, under predominantly clear skies and light winds that prevented significant nocturnal cooling. This value aligns with mid-September climatological normals near 26°C for the urban observatory site and reflects stable subtropical high-pressure conditions suppressing cloud cover and moisture. With the date now past and data released, trader consensus at 99.8% implied probability rests on verified measurements rather than forecasts. A realistic shift would require an official data revision or resolution based on an alternative station reading outside the standard Hong Kong Observatory criteria, though both remain low-probability outcomes given the consistency across monitoring networks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 18?
27°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$21,520 Vol.
$21,520 Vol.
Sep 18, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$21,520 Vol.
$21,520 Vol.
Sep 18, 2026
21°C or below
$81 Vol.
No
22°C
$38 Vol.
No
23°C
$33 Vol.
No
24°C
$268 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,216 Vol.
No
26°C
$8,240 Vol.
No
27°C
$6,555 Vol.
Yes
28°C
$2,662 Vol.
No
29°C
$53 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,187 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$1,187 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a minimum air temperature of 27°C on September 18, 2026, under predominantly clear skies and light winds that prevented significant nocturnal cooling. This value aligns with mid-September climatological normals near 26°C for the urban observatory site and reflects stable subtropical high-pressure conditions suppressing cloud cover and moisture. With the date now past and data released, trader consensus at 99.8% implied probability rests on verified measurements rather than forecasts. A realistic shift would require an official data revision or resolution based on an alternative station reading outside the standard Hong Kong Observatory criteria, though both remain low-probability outcomes given the consistency across monitoring networks.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$21,520End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a minimum air temperature of 27°C on September 18, 2026, under predominantly clear skies and light winds that prevented significant nocturnal cooling. This value aligns with mid-September climatological normals near 26°C for the urban observatory site and reflects stable subtropical high-pressure conditions suppressing cloud cover and moisture. With the date now past and data released, trader consensus at 99.8% implied probability rests on verified measurements rather than forecasts. A realistic shift would require an official data revision or resolution based on an alternative station reading outside the standard Hong Kong Observatory criteria, though both remain low-probability outcomes given the consistency across monitoring networks.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$21,520End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a minimum air temperature of 27°C on September 18, 2026, under predominantly clear skies and light winds that prevented significant nocturnal cooling. This value aligns with mid-September climatological normals near 26°C for the urban observatory site and reflects stable subtropical high-pressure conditions suppressing cloud cover and moisture. With the date now past and data released, trader consensus at 99.8% implied probability rests on verified measurements rather than forecasts. A realistic shift would require an official data revision or resolution based on an alternative station reading outside the standard Hong Kong Observatory criteria, though both remain low-probability outcomes given the consistency across monitoring networks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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