Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS and European ensembles supports a daily maximum near 33–34°C in Madrid on September 23 under mostly clear skies, light easterly to southeasterly winds, and very low humidity, favoring strong daytime solar heating. High-pressure dominance and dry air mass have kept precipitation chances near zero, aligning with typical late-September climatology for the region. Trader-implied odds heavily favor 34°C (69.5%) over 33°C (22.5%) because afternoon observations are tracking slightly above earlier guidance, though minor model adjustments or localized cooling could still shift the final reading within the narrow 32–35°C band before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 23?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 23?
34°C 73%
33°C 25%
35°C 5%
32°C 1.1%
$26,968 Vol.
$26,968 Vol.
Sep 23, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
25%
34°C
73%
35°C
5%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
34°C 73%
33°C 25%
35°C 5%
32°C 1.1%
$26,968 Vol.
$26,968 Vol.
Sep 23, 2026
28°C or below
$1,091 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$115 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$100 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$1,752 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$3,960 Vol.
1%
33°C
$6,038 Vol.
25%
34°C
$7,428 Vol.
73%
35°C
$3,734 Vol.
5%
36°C
$2,294 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$100 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$356 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS and European ensembles supports a daily maximum near 33–34°C in Madrid on September 23 under mostly clear skies, light easterly to southeasterly winds, and very low humidity, favoring strong daytime solar heating. High-pressure dominance and dry air mass have kept precipitation chances near zero, aligning with typical late-September climatology for the region. Trader-implied odds heavily favor 34°C (69.5%) over 33°C (22.5%) because afternoon observations are tracking slightly above earlier guidance, though minor model adjustments or localized cooling could still shift the final reading within the narrow 32–35°C band before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$26,968End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS and European ensembles supports a daily maximum near 33–34°C in Madrid on September 23 under mostly clear skies, light easterly to southeasterly winds, and very low humidity, favoring strong daytime solar heating. High-pressure dominance and dry air mass have kept precipitation chances near zero, aligning with typical late-September climatology for the region. Trader-implied odds heavily favor 34°C (69.5%) over 33°C (22.5%) because afternoon observations are tracking slightly above earlier guidance, though minor model adjustments or localized cooling could still shift the final reading within the narrow 32–35°C band before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$26,968End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS and European ensembles supports a daily maximum near 33–34°C in Madrid on September 23 under mostly clear skies, light easterly to southeasterly winds, and very low humidity, favoring strong daytime solar heating. High-pressure dominance and dry air mass have kept precipitation chances near zero, aligning with typical late-September climatology for the region. Trader-implied odds heavily favor 34°C (69.5%) over 33°C (22.5%) because afternoon observations are tracking slightly above earlier guidance, though minor model adjustments or localized cooling could still shift the final reading within the narrow 32–35°C band before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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