Official National Weather Service observations recorded a 54°F minimum in Denver on September 16, 2026, placing the daily low firmly in the 54-55°F range amid mild overnight conditions and limited cold-air advection. This outcome aligns with climatological normals near 50°F for mid-September yet exceeded the market's dominant 51°F-or-below threshold, reflecting trader consensus shaped by pre-event model runs that anticipated slightly cooler readings under variable cloud cover. Seasonal baselines and recent warm anomalies in the region further contextualized expectations, while verification timing from primary stations like Denver International Airport anchors the skin-in-the-game assessment. Any revision from additional reporting networks remains unlikely to shift the resolved category.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Denver on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Denver on September 16?
51°F or below 100.0%
52-53°F <1%
54-55°F <1%
56-57°F <1%
$626 Vol.
$626 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
51°F or below
Yes
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70°F or higher
No
51°F or below 100.0%
52-53°F <1%
54-55°F <1%
56-57°F <1%
$626 Vol.
$626 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
51°F or below
$0 Vol.
Yes
52-53°F
$40 Vol.
No
54-55°F
$102 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$232 Vol.
No
58-59°F
$174 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$3 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$16 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$16 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$22 Vol.
No
70°F or higher
$22 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations recorded a 54°F minimum in Denver on September 16, 2026, placing the daily low firmly in the 54-55°F range amid mild overnight conditions and limited cold-air advection. This outcome aligns with climatological normals near 50°F for mid-September yet exceeded the market's dominant 51°F-or-below threshold, reflecting trader consensus shaped by pre-event model runs that anticipated slightly cooler readings under variable cloud cover. Seasonal baselines and recent warm anomalies in the region further contextualized expectations, while verification timing from primary stations like Denver International Airport anchors the skin-in-the-game assessment. Any revision from additional reporting networks remains unlikely to shift the resolved category.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$626End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkfResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations recorded a 54°F minimum in Denver on September 16, 2026, placing the daily low firmly in the 54-55°F range amid mild overnight conditions and limited cold-air advection. This outcome aligns with climatological normals near 50°F for mid-September yet exceeded the market's dominant 51°F-or-below threshold, reflecting trader consensus shaped by pre-event model runs that anticipated slightly cooler readings under variable cloud cover. Seasonal baselines and recent warm anomalies in the region further contextualized expectations, while verification timing from primary stations like Denver International Airport anchors the skin-in-the-game assessment. Any revision from additional reporting networks remains unlikely to shift the resolved category.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$626End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkfResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Official National Weather Service observations recorded a 54°F minimum in Denver on September 16, 2026, placing the daily low firmly in the 54-55°F range amid mild overnight conditions and limited cold-air advection. This outcome aligns with climatological normals near 50°F for mid-September yet exceeded the market's dominant 51°F-or-below threshold, reflecting trader consensus shaped by pre-event model runs that anticipated slightly cooler readings under variable cloud cover. Seasonal baselines and recent warm anomalies in the region further contextualized expectations, while verification timing from primary stations like Denver International Airport anchors the skin-in-the-game assessment. Any revision from additional reporting networks remains unlikely to shift the resolved category.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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