Persistent northeasterly flow and cloud cover are keeping maximum temperatures in New York City below seasonal norms, with National Weather Service forecasts calling for highs in the upper 60s on September 25 amid a 30% chance of showers and north winds gusting to 35 mph. This setup favors the market’s leading 68-71°F outcomes through cool-air advection and limited insolation, though model spreads on cloud timing and shower coverage introduce modest uncertainty that supports the secondary 72-73°F probability. Historical September 25 averages near 73°F highlight the current anomaly driven by the entrenched high-pressure ridge to the north. Updated NWS guidance and afternoon model runs will refine these temperature thresholds before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on September 25?
Highest temperature in NYC on September 25?
70-71°F 37%
68-69°F 25%
72-73°F 20%
66-67°F 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
57°F or below
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
3%
64-65°F
6%
66-67°F
14%
68-69°F
25%
70-71°F
37%
72-73°F
20%
74-75°F
4%
76°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 37%
68-69°F 25%
72-73°F 20%
66-67°F 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
57°F or below
$100 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$1,302 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$1,420 Vol.
1%
62-63°F
$480 Vol.
3%
64-65°F
$1,222 Vol.
6%
66-67°F
$1,024 Vol.
14%
68-69°F
$769 Vol.
25%
70-71°F
$589 Vol.
37%
72-73°F
$161 Vol.
20%
74-75°F
$48 Vol.
4%
76°F or higher
$66 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent northeasterly flow and cloud cover are keeping maximum temperatures in New York City below seasonal norms, with National Weather Service forecasts calling for highs in the upper 60s on September 25 amid a 30% chance of showers and north winds gusting to 35 mph. This setup favors the market’s leading 68-71°F outcomes through cool-air advection and limited insolation, though model spreads on cloud timing and shower coverage introduce modest uncertainty that supports the secondary 72-73°F probability. Historical September 25 averages near 73°F highlight the current anomaly driven by the entrenched high-pressure ridge to the north. Updated NWS guidance and afternoon model runs will refine these temperature thresholds before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$7,180End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent northeasterly flow and cloud cover are keeping maximum temperatures in New York City below seasonal norms, with National Weather Service forecasts calling for highs in the upper 60s on September 25 amid a 30% chance of showers and north winds gusting to 35 mph. This setup favors the market’s leading 68-71°F outcomes through cool-air advection and limited insolation, though model spreads on cloud timing and shower coverage introduce modest uncertainty that supports the secondary 72-73°F probability. Historical September 25 averages near 73°F highlight the current anomaly driven by the entrenched high-pressure ridge to the north. Updated NWS guidance and afternoon model runs will refine these temperature thresholds before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,180End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47de9d...Persistent northeasterly flow and cloud cover are keeping maximum temperatures in New York City below seasonal norms, with National Weather Service forecasts calling for highs in the upper 60s on September 25 amid a 30% chance of showers and north winds gusting to 35 mph. This setup favors the market’s leading 68-71°F outcomes through cool-air advection and limited insolation, though model spreads on cloud timing and shower coverage introduce modest uncertainty that supports the secondary 72-73°F probability. Historical September 25 averages near 73°F highlight the current anomaly driven by the entrenched high-pressure ridge to the north. Updated NWS guidance and afternoon model runs will refine these temperature thresholds before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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